I make my predictions for the NFL playoffs:
WILD CARD
Las Vegas Raiders At Cincinnati Bengals
THE SPREAD
Cincinnati is favored by 5.5 points.
THE REGULAR SEASON MEETING
These two teams met on Nov. 21. The Bengals won that game 32-13. It was close in the first half with the Bengals off to a 10-6 lead. In the second half the Bengals really separated themselves and it ended in a blowout. The Bengals key to the game was running the ball with Joe Mixon (30 car, 123 yds, 2 TDs) and limiting the Raiders’ running attack (72 yds). Basically the only thing that worked for Raiders was Darren Waller (7 rec, 116 yds). Waller had over half of the teams total receiving yards. If the Raiders want to win this time around, they need to get the ball to more people than just Waller, and get a running game going.
THE LAST 4 GAMES
The Raiders finished 4-0, and the Bengals finished 3-1. While the Raiders were undefeated in that stretch, none of those wins were against playoff teams, and none of them were by more than 4 points. The Raiders beat the Browns, Broncos, Colts, and Chargers. The Bengals beat the Chiefs which is very impressive. They also lost to the Browns, but that game didn’t really matter much since the Bengals were already in. The Bengals also beat the Ravens and Broncos. Overall I’d say the Bengals played better to end the season.
THE X-FACTORS
The Bengals need to do the same thing they did in the first matchup. Run the football with Mixon, and stop the Raiders from running. The Raiders need to find a way to create some turnovers and create a more balanced offensive attack. The Raiders were balanced against the Chargers, and it led to much success. Both teams need to establish the run.
THE VERDICT
While the Raiders have been playing well lately, the Bengals offense will be too much. Cincinnati will win but not cover with a score of 28-24. The Bengals offense will be too much for the Raiders under-whelming defense.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
THE SPREAD
Buffalo is favored by 4.5 points.
THE REGULAR SEASON MEETINGS
These two teams met on Dec 6 and Dec 26. In the first meeting the Patriots won 14-10. The Patriots won while only passing the ball three times! Due to the windy conditions, Josh Allen only completed 50% of his passes. The Patriots win was led by Damien Harris (10 car, 111 yds, 1 TD) and Rhamondre Stevenson (24 car, 78 yds). The Bills just couldn’t get anything going on offense. In the second meeting the Bills won 33-21. This game had a lot more tame weather and Josh Allen was able to throw for 314 yds and 3 TDs plus 64 yds on the ground. The Bills also got big games from Isaiah McKenzie (11 rec, 125 yds, 1 TD) and Micah Hyde (6 TKL, 2 PD, 2 INT). The Patriots had a fantastic game from Damien Harris (18 car, 103 yds, 3 TDs), but nobody else really had a good game.
THE LAST 4 GAMES
The Patriots have not been on a very good stretch as of late. They lost to the Colts, Bills, and Dolphins, but demolished the lowly Jaguars. The Bills are on a 4 game winning streak. They beat the Panthers, Patriots, Falcons, and Jets. They hot hand is definitely in the Bills favor, though aside from the win against the Pats, none of those were against playoff teams. The Bills definitely had a better end to the season.
THE X-FACTORS
The Patriots need to get pressure on Josh Allen and be efficient in the passing game. The Patriots did not get a single sack across their two meetings this season. If the Patriots can force some negative plays, and get a passing game going, they should be in good shape. The Bills need to stop the run. Damien Harris has a combined 236 yards and 4 TDs on just 28 carries. If the Bills can stop Harris and force Mac Jones to throw, the Bills should win.
THE VERDICT
The Patriots have possibly the best coach in NFL history. The Patriots have made it to the Super Bowl in 4 of the last 7 seasons. They have also made it to the AFC Championship in 8 of the last 10. The Bills made it to the AFC championship last year, have the no. 1 team in total defense, and no. 3 in total offense. I think New England will cover and win 23-21. The Patriots will get their passing game rolling along with their running game, and their offense will be too much for Buffalo.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
THE SPREAD
Tampa Bay is favored by 8.5 points.
THE REGULAR SEASON MEETING
They met on Oct 14. Tampa Bay only won 28-22, but they were dominating for most of the game. The Buccaneers were up 28-7 with less than 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. The Buccaneers were definitely the better team. However, since then the Eagles have been 7-4 and 6-2 in the last eight. For Tampa Bay: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, and Antonio Brown all had great games. However, Leonard Fournette is a game-time decision this week, and Antonio Brown is no longer with the team. For the Eagles: Jalen Hurts had 3 total touchdowns and Alex Singleton had 15 total tackles, but that was really all they had going for them.
THE LAST 4 GAMES
Tampa Bay was 3-1 down the stretch. They lost to New Orleans 9-0 to begin the stretch, but ended the season with 3 straight wins against the Panthers twice and the Jets. Philadelphia beat Washington twice, beat the Giants, but lost to the Cowboys. Both of them lost to their best team on their stretch, and they beat a bunch of easy teams.
THE X-FACTORS
Tampa Bay needs to stop the run. They have been doing a good job at stopping the run all season, but the Eagles have the most rushing yards per game in the NFL. The Eagles need to get he running game going. The Eagles cannot win a game by passing. They need to get Hurts and Sanders running the ball.
THE VERDICT
The Eagles have not won a game against a playoff team this year. Their best win of the season was either against the Saints or the Broncos. The Buccaneers have several good wins this season, and Tom Brady plays his best in the playoffs. Tampa Bay will cover and win 31-21. The Eagles won’t get the running game going like they like to do, and Tom Brady will have a great game.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
THE SPREAD
Dallas is favored by 3.0 points.
THE LAST 4 GAMES
The 49ers have played quite well down the stretch with their only loss being to the Titans. They beat the Falcons, Texans, and Rams. The Cowboys also did good with their only loss being to the Cardinals. They beat the Giants, Washington, and the Eagles. I’d say the 49ers had a better stretch because they beat better teams.
THE X-FACTORS
The 49ers need to keep Kittle involved. When George Kittle is cooking, it is very hard to stop this offense. The Cowboys need to force some turnovers. They have been good at doing it all year, especially with Trevon Diggs at corner.
THE VERDICT
Both teams have explosive playmakers on offense, but the Cowboys have a definite advantage at QB. Dak Prescott is MVP caliber, while Jimmy Garoppolo is a pretty middle of the pack starting QB. With that in mind I think the Cowboys will win and cover 31-24. The Cowboys offense will be too much for San Francisco, and Dallas will force a crucial turnover late.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
THE SPREAD
Kansas City is favored by 13.0 points.
THE REGULAR SEASON MATCHUP
These teams met on Dec 26. Kansas City won the first matchup 36-10. The Chiefs dominated the entire game. Patrick Mahomes (23/30, 258 yds, 3 TDs) and Byron Pringle (6 rec, 75 yds, 2 TDs) led the way for the Chiefs while Najee Harris (19 car, 93 yds, 5 rec, 17 yds) was good for the Steelers.
THE LAST 4 GAMES
The Steelers lost in that game to the Chiefs, but beat the 1 seed Titans plus the Ravens and Browns. The Chiefs beat the Chargers, Steelers, and Broncos, but lost to the Bengals. I’d give the edge to the Chiefs down the stretch because they won by bigger margins.
THE X-FACTORS
The Steelers need to find a way to keep up with Kansas City’s offense. Whether it is getting the running game going with Najee Harris, or getting it their talented receivers, they need to score at least 24 points. The Chiefs need to keep the Steelers offense in check. This shouldn’t be too hard since the Steelers offense is 21st in ppg.
THE VERDICT
The Steelers have a good defense, but their offense isn’t explosive enough to make the plays necessary to keep up with the Chiefs. Kansas City will cover and win 31-14.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
THE SPREAD
Los Angeles is favored by 3.5 points.
THE REGULAR SEASON MATCHUPS
They played against each other on Oct 3 and Dec 13. In the first game the Cardinals won in LA 37-20. After the first quarter, the Cardinals took over. Arizona was led by Chase Edmonds (12 car, 120 yds) and James Conner (18 car, 50 yds, 2 TDs), while the Rams had a good game from Van Jefferson (6 rec, 90 yds, 1 TD). In the second matchup the Rams got revenge in Arizona by winning 30-23. It was tied at the half, but the third quarter rocketed the Rams ahead by double digits. The Rams were led by Aaron Donald (5 tkl, 3 sks, 3 tfl), Matt Stafford (23/30, 287 yds, 3 TDs), and Cooper Kupp (13 rec, 123 yds, 1 TD). The Cardinals had decent game from Kyler Murray (32/49, 383 yds, 2 INTs, 7 car, 61 yds), and they had a good game from James Conner (13 car, 31 yds, 2 TDs, 9 rec, 94 yds) and A.J. Green (7 rec, 102 yds).
THE LAST 4 GAMES
Arizona has not been good these last few weeks. They lost to the Colts, the Lions, and the Seahawks, but won at the Cowboys. The Rams beat the Seahawks, Vikings, and Ravens, but lost to the 49ers in their season finale. The Rams were definitely better down the stretch.
THE X-FACTORS
The Cardinals need to get the running game going. In the first game, the Cardinals got the running game going, and they could not be stopped, but in the next game they couldn’t get much production from their running backs. The Rams need to avoid turning the ball over. Stafford has had a problem all season with turnovers. When Stafford doesn’t turn the ball over, the Rams are almost unstoppable.
THE VERDICT
The Cardinals are 8-1 on the road. At this point however, I think the Rams are just a superior team and that record won’t matter. I say the Rams will win and cover 28-21. Matthew Stafford will have a really good game, and he will get his first ever playoff win.
THE REST
Divisional
- Rams at Packers
- Cowboys at Buccaneers
- Bengals at Chiefs
- Patriots at Titans
Championship
- Cowboys at Packers
- Chiefs at Titans
Super Bowl
- Chiefs vs Packers
JacobErwin.com 