The NCAA Tourney is right around the corner, and I’ll walk you through my predictions for a competitive SEC tournament that could have impactful implications for seeding:
SEC Tournament
The SEC is maybe the best conference in all of college basketball this year. According to the bracket matrix, Auburn will be a 1 seed, Kentucky a 2, Tennessee a 3, Arkansas a 4, Alabama and LSU at a 6, and Florida as one of the first 4 out. The SEC is loaded, and this should make for a very interesting SEC Tournament, in a battle for an auto bid, and improvement in overall seeding.
Here’s How Things Look For the 1st Round
In the first round, you have 11 Vanderbilt against 14 Georgia, and 12 Missouri vs 13 Ole Miss. Georgia is by far the worst team in the SEC, and Vanderbilt should win no problem and move on to the next round. Ole Miss vs Missouri is a more intriguing matchup, though I’ll have to pick Missouri for this one. Not only does Missouri have two more Q1 wins than Ole Miss, but the Tigers beat the Rebels both times they played against each other in the regular season.
2nd Round
8 Texas A&M will play against 9 Florida, I have 12 Missouri playing against 5 LSU, 11 Vanderbilt playing against 6 Alabama, and 7 South Carolina vs 10 Mississippi State.
8 Texas A&M Aggies vs 9 Florida Gators
Florida is in the mix right now to make the big dance, but if A&M has a big run and gets some impressive wins along the way, they could get in as well. They both are 2-8 in Q1 games, and both have similar records elsewhere. Texas A&M won in their only regular season matchup. One thing worth mentioning though, is that Florida beat Auburn not too long ago. I think Florida will get the win, and help their case to make it into the tournament.
5 LSU Tigers vs 12 Missouri Tigers
LSU is a very good team that is tournament bound, and I expect them to care of Missouri with relative ease.
6 Alabama Crimson Tide vs 11 Vanderbilt Commodores
Alabama has been very inconsistent this season though should be worth noting that they have 7 Q1 wins and have played some of the most Q1 opponents of anyone in the country. Alabama also won at Vanderbilt not too long ago. I expect Alabama to win this one, but close.
7 South Carolina Gamecocks vs 10 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State was considered on the bubble for a while, but have kind of faded off since then. Both teams have two Q1 wins. They split their season series against each other. Neither team has been playing very well lately either. I’m going to give the edge to South Carolina because they have a more realistic shot at making the tournament than Miss State does.
Quarterfinals
This is where stuff gets juicy. I project that no. 1 Auburn will play against 9 Florida, 4 Arkansas vs 5 LSU, 2 Tennessee vs 7 South Carolina, and 3 Kentucky vs 6 Alabama.
1 Auburn Tigers vs 9 Florida Gators
Despite the seed difference, this game could be very interesting. They split the season series, but Florida won the most recent meeting. Both teams have great big men, and it could be a great battle down low. However, I believe the season may end right here for the Gators as Auburn wins, and Florida must hope that the win over Texas A&M was enough to get in.
4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs 5 LSU Tigers
Arkansas is 6-4 in Q1 games while LSU is 5-7. Arkansas is 5-0 in Q2 games while LSU is 4-2. Arkansas plays better against better teams. Arkansas also won both meetings between the two in the regular season. I say Arkansas will win this, and move on to the semifinals.
2 Tennessee Volunteers vs 7 South Carolina Gamecocks
Tennessee won both matchups in the regular season. While South Carolina needs this game to make the tournament, Tennessee has been hot lately, and I can’t see the Gamecocks winning this one.
3 Kentucky Wildcats vs 6 Alabama Crimson Tide
While Alabama is not in danger if missing the NCAA Tourney, they are in danger of missing a 5 seed. Kentucky has had the Crimson Tide’s number this season, and I expect Kentucky will win again unless Alabama can get their turnovers down and 3pt% up.
Semifinals
I project the two matchups will be 1 Auburn vs 4 Arkansas and 2 Tennessee vs 3 Kentucky.
1 Auburn Tigers vs 4 Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas won in their regular season matchup back in early February. Arkansas has been playing very well lately winning 5 of their last 6 and 14 of the last 16 including wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, and LSU since losing to Alabama on February 12th. Auburn has been okay as of late, but the last time they beat a tournament bound team was on February 1st against Alabama. Arkansas has all of the momentum on their side, and they will get the upset.
2 Tennessee Volunteers vs 3 Kentucky Wildcats
They split their series in the regular season, but Tennessee won the most recent one by 13 points. Both teams have played very well all season, and this is a very even matchup. One place Kentucky has an advantage is that they are 7-6 against Q1 opponents while Tennessee is 6-7. Tennessee has won 9 of their last 10 (including a win over Kentucky) while Kentucky has 8 over that span. I’m gonna give the edge to Tennessee here, but it could go either way.
Finals
2 Tennessee Volunteers vs 4 Arkansas Razorbacks
They split their season series, but Tennessee won in the last game of the regular season. Both teams are on fire right now, and both have 6 Q1 wins each. It should also be worth noting that Tennessee’s only losses are to Q1 teams. I’m gonna give Tennessee the edge in this one, as they will be the 2022 SEC Champions.
JacobErwin.com 