My top 50 teams going into the new season, who makes the playoffs, and how I rank my teams:
Top 25
- Alabama Crimson Tide 0-0: vs Utah State
- Ohio State Buckeyes 0-0: vs 7 Notre Dame
- Georgia Bulldogs 0-0: vs 19 Oregon
- Clemson Tigers 0-0: at Georgia Tech
- Utah Utes 0-0: at Florida
- Baylor Bears 0-0: vs Albany
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0-0: at 2 Ohio State
- Michigan Wolverines 0-0: vs Colorado State
- BYU Cougars 0-0: at USF
- Arkansas Razorbacks 0-0: vs 25 Cincinnati
- Oklahoma Sooners 0-0: vs UTEP
- Oklahoma State Cowboys 0-0: vs Central Michigan
- Kentucky Wildcats 0-0: vs Miami (OH)
- NC State Wolfpack 0-0: at East Carolina
- Texas A&M Aggies 0-0: vs Sam Houston
- USC Trojans 0-0: vs Rice
- Tennessee Volunteers 0-0: vs Ball State
- Ole Miss Rebels 0-0: vs Troy
- Oregon Ducks 0-0: vs 3 Georgia
- Mississippi State Bulldogs 0-0: vs Memphis
- Michigan State Spartans 0-0: vs Western Michigan
- Fresno State Bulldogs 0-0: vs Cal Poly
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0-0: vs VMI
- Houston Cougars 0-0: at UTSA
- Cincinnati Bearcats 0-0: at 10 Arkansas
How Do I Rank My Teams?
This is not a prediction of what the rankings are going to be, and I don’t necessarily think the top 4 teams will make the playoffs. This is based on who I think would win head-to-head with few exceptions.
Who Will Make the Playoffs?
I would be shocked if Alabama or Ohio State missed the playoffs. Since I believe they are almost locks to make it, that leaves two more spots.
While I believe Georgia will be very good, I don’t think they will be quite what they were last year. Their defense will be very good, but very unexperienced. On offense they lost both of their main RBs and their top WR.
Clemson has some of the best talent in the country on both sides of the ball, but QB play needs to be better. Clemson was good last year, but if D.J. Uiagalelei would have played better, they probably would have won the ACC. Now he has a full year of starting experience. If he can improve then Clemson could be unstoppable within their conference.
Utah played quite well at the end of last year, and they won’t be losing much. Cam Rising is still the QB and Tavion Thomas is still at RB. They have a manageable schedule should probably win the Pac-12. So now the question is if that would be good enough to put them in over the Georgia’s and Clemson’s of the world.
Baylor also played very well at the end of last season. They have a lot coming back as well. There are only two issues, but one could possibly help them. They do not have much experience at skill positions. While QB should be good, they lost their starting RB and their receivers don not have much experience at all. They also have a tough strength of schedule playing against BYU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State while also having Kansas State and Texas who I think are pretty good. If they can get through their schedule with just 1 loss, then it would be quite hard to keep them out of the playoffs.
Those are the main playoff contenders, but there are a few others to watchout for if everything falls into place. Notre Dame and BYU have strong schedules, but do not have a conference championship to benefit from. If Michigan can beat Ohio State again, then they will probably make it. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are both very good. They both have very good chances to win the Big 12. They just have to deal with tough schedules. You should maybe look at USC. While I don’t think they have the defense to win the Pac-12, they do have an amazing skill positions group that is among the best in the country. If you want a Group of 5 team again, then Fresno State, Houston, and Cincinnati have the best chances. Fresno State probably is the best and has the best schedule out of those 3. Houston is good, but has a bad schedule. Cincinnati plays against Arkansas in Week 1 which could be a great win, but other than that, they don’t have much.
So who will make the playoffs? Alabama and Ohio State seem too good to lose until they play against each other in the National Championship. So the debate is really between Georgia, Clemson, Utah, and Baylor. Georgia is probably the best out of all of them, but they must play against Alabama in the SEC Championship which gives them a very small margin for error against a decently tough regular season schedule. Clemson is probably better than Utah and Baylor, but a lot rides on their QB getting better while also probably having the easiest schedule out of the 4 (Though they do have Notre Dame which could be interesting). Utah probably has the best QB and RB of any of these teams plus a manageable schedule, but can that schedule beat Baylor’s or Georgia’s? Baylor has the toughest schedule. If all of these teams have one loss going into Selection Sunday, then Baylor has a very good chance to make it in.
My initial prediction to make the playoffs would be Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, and Clemson, but then I discovered an interesting trend. Since 2016, there has been an average of 1 new team to make the playoffs. Last year we saw two new teams make the playoffs (Michigan and Cincinnati). With the transfer portal evening things out to an extent, it seems as if there will be much more parody in years to come, which leads me to believe that either Georgia or Clemson is going to have to be cut. While Clemson doesn’t have to deal with a team like Alabama, I believe they will lose a game, and their strength of schedule won’t be enough to carry them in. I predict that Baylor will take the last spot in the playoffs after getting through the regular season with only one loss (probably to BYU, Oklahoma, or Oklahoma State).
Rankings 26-50
26. Purdue Boilermakers
27. Florida Gators
28. Wisconsin Badgers
29. San Diego State Aztecs
30. UCLA Bruins
31. Kansas State Wildcats
32. Miami (FL) Hurricanes
33. Virginia Cavaliers
34. Auburn Tigers
35. Pittsburgh Panthers
36. Penn State Nittany Lions
37. Texas Longhorns
38. Air Force Falcons
39. Iowa Hawkeyes
40. South Carolina Gamecocks
41. Boise State Broncos
42. LSU Tigers
43. North Carolina Tar Heels
44. Utah State Aggies
45. Louisville Cardinals
46. Oregon State Beavers
47. Boston College Eagles
48. UCF Golden Knights
49. Appalachian State Mountaineers
50. Missouri Tigers
JacobErwin.com 