College Football Top 25: Week 1

My Top 25 teams to start the 2023 college football season, who I think will make the playoffs, and more:

Michigan Wolverines 0-0: vs East Carolina
Alabama Crimson Tide 0-0: vs MTSU
Georgia Bulldogs 0-0: vs UT Martin
LSU Tigers 0-0: vs 13 Florida State
Texas Longhorns 0-0: vs Rice
Clemson Tigers 0-0: at Duke
Ohio State Buckeyes 0-0: at Indiana
Penn State Nittany Lions 0-0: vs West Virginia
Washington Huskies 0-0: vs Boise State
Utah Utes 0-0: vs Florida
USC Trojans 0-0: vs San Jose State, vs Nevada
Oregon Ducks 0-0: vs Portland State
Florida State Seminoles 0-0: vs 4 LSU
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0-0: vs Navy
Ole Miss Rebels 0-0: vs Mercer
Tennessee Volunteers 0-0: vs Virginia
Arkansas Razorbacks 0-0: vs Western Carolina
Oregon State Beavers 0-0: at San Jose State
Maryland Terrapins 0-0: vs Towson
North Carolina Tar Heels 0-0: at South Carolina
Kansas Jayhawks 0-0: vs Missouri State
Illinois Fighting Illini 0-0: vs Toledo
Wisconsin Badgers 0-0: vs Buffalo
Kansas State Wildcats 0-0: vs SEMO
UCLA Bruins 0-0: vs Coastal Carolina

Just Missed

Texas A&M Aggies
South Alabama Jaguars
Oklahoma Sooners
Miami Hurricanes
Texas Tech Red Raiders

Playoff Talk

Alright, we have one more year of the 4 team playoff. I personally think they should move to an 8 team playoff with the current seeding system instead of a 12 team playoff with the auto-bids, but I digress. The challenge of predicting who will make the playoffs may appear daunting, but I believe I have a good system. First, I’ll categorize all the contenders and map out their toughest three games

Powerhouses

These teams almost always make the playoffs, but they have not all been in the playoffs at the same time:

Michigan Wolverines: at Penn State, vs Ohio State, at Maryland
Alabama Crimson Tide: vs LSU, vs Texas, vs Ole Miss
Georgia Bulldogs: at Tennessee, vs Ole Miss, at Auburn
Ohio State Buckeyes: at Michigan, vs Penn State, at Notre Dame

Looking to Return

These teams have all made the playoffs before and all are in position to possibly contend again:

LSU Tigers: at Alabama, at Ole Miss, vs Florida State

Clemson Tigers: vs Florida State, vs Notre Dame, vs North Carolina
Washington Huskies: at USC, vs Utah, vs Oregon
Oregon Ducks: at Washington, at Utah, vs USC
Florida State Seminoles: at Clemson, vs LSU, at Florida
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: at Clemson, vs Ohio State, vs USC

Newcomers

These teams have never made the playoffs and are looking to crash the party:

Texas Longhorns: at Alabama, vs Kansas, vs Kansas State
Penn State Nittany Lions: at Ohio State, vs Michigan, at Maryland
Utah Utes: at Washington, at USC, vs Oregon
USC Trojans: vs Washington, at Oregon, vs Utah

Narrowing Down the Options

That’s a lot of teams that could be in contention for the playoffs. While doing research over the last few seasons, I have found a trend. Excluding 2014 and 2015 (the first two years with the 4-team playoff format), there has been an average of 1.0 team to make the playoffs for the first time each year, or in other words, each year a team from the “newcomer” category makes it to the playoffs. I caught on to the trend last year and almost guessed correctly when I said that Baylor would make the playoffs. Little did I know that it would actually be a different team from Texas in the Big 12 that would actually make the playoffs (TCU).

So which newcomer will make it this year?

USC seems to be a very popular pick, and with their Heisman Trophy winning QB coming back (Caleb Williams), they seem like the obvious. However, their schedule scares me, and so does their middling defense. While, they have a lot of chances to prove themselves against strong opponents, they also have a plethora of chances to lose. Seeing how there has never been a team with 2+ losses to make the playoffs, a tough schedule can hurt you. USC must play in road games against #14 Notre Dame and #12 Oregon. At home it doesn’t get any easier with games against #9 Washington, #10 Utah, and #25 UCLA. All 5 of those games come in the last 6 weeks of the season with the only break being a road trip to Cal. Even if USC manages to make it through that gauntlet with less than 2 losses, they must play in the Pac 12 championship where they will play one of those highly ranked teams again. The path is not easy for USC.

If it weren’t for a week 1 slip up against Florida, Utah would have found themselves in the middle of the playoff conversation last year. They return 9 starters from their stellar defense, and Cam Rising is one of many great QBs from the Pac 12. Things are looking up for the Utes, but they have a similar problem to USC. Their schedule is brutal. In addition to playing USC, Washington, and Oregon, they must play against #18 Oregon State and #25 UCLA. Add on two tough non-conference matchups against Florida and Baylor, and you have a schedule that will be almost impossible to navigate without suffering at least 2 losses.

Moving on from the Pac 12, Penn State has made a little bit of a resurgence. Since the days of Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley, the Nittany Lions had been struggling to find their footing, especially in 2020 and 2021. Last year however, they managed to go 11-2 with a Rose bowl win over Utah. This year, their schedule is very similar in difficulty. #19 Maryland and #22 Illinois could be a little bit of a challenge, but I wouldn’t be too concerned. The real challenge is #1 Michigan and #7 Ohio State. Penn State hasn’t beat either of those teams since 2020. This year they return perhaps the Big Ten’s best defense, and a great rushing attack featuring a star in RB Nicholas Singleton. Their biggest question mark is replacing career passing leader Sean Clifford. That’s where Drew Allar comes in. I believe Allar has the potential to be even better than Clifford, who was a little inconsistent at times. They have a very good team, but can they beat Michigan and Ohio State?

Texas. Oh Texas. After almost beating Alabama last year, I thought they would be a shoe in to win the Big 12, but alas, they didn’t even make it to the title game. Quinn Ewers is the X-factor here. When he was at his best last year, Texas was better than Alabama, and definitely better than any other Big 12 team. They lose star RB Bijan Robinson and LB DeMarvion Overshown, but have more than enough talent to make up for it. If Quinn Ewers gets back to playing like he did against Alabama, he almost definitely will win the Heisman. Couple his potential with the best WR in the country in Xavier Worthy, they have a top 5 team in the country. Much like the three teams above, their schedule could be their downfall, and not for the reason you may be thinking. Their schedule is quite weak in comparison to other contenders. Alabama is a super tough opponent, and this time around they play in Tuscaloosa. If they lose that game, they have to rely on the committee being fine with their best wins being against #21 Kansas and #24 Kansas State, which is not very impressive.

Out of those 4 teams, the most likely to make it to the end as a top 4 team is Texas. Texas is what USC wishes they could be. Both teams have explosive offenses, but Texas has the defense to put them over the top. Penn State has the best defense out of the bunch, but their offense is lacking explosion while they also have to deal with the hardest top 2 games of the bunch. Utah is the most balanced, but their schedule is too much. This all leaves Texas as the final team. They will probably lose to Alabama, but I expect them to breeze through the rest of their schedule and be the “newcomer” to make the playoffs. Though honestly, if last year has taught me anything, Texas Tech will probably make the playoffs instead.

Who are the other three?

Looking at the list of teams looking to return, I’m going kick Notre Dame and Oregon out of the discussion. Oregon has a very nice team, but seeing how I don’t think they are even a top three team in their conference, I highly doubt they could get through a gauntlet of USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State, and Oregon State plus a road trip to Texas Tech out of conference with less than 2 losses. Notre Dame doesn’t quite have the offensive firepower to get things done. I believe Sam Hartman is the best QB they have had in a long time, but they don’t have the receivers or running game to take full advantage. Couple the talent discrepancy with a schedule that sees them play against Ohio State, USC, and Clemson, and I doubt they’ll make their return to the playoffs this year.

It gets a little more interesting with Florida State. The Seminoles have almost all of their meaningful production coming back from last year including a star QB in Jordan Travis. Their schedule is very favorable. It is for the most part quite easy, but they get a road test against Clemson and a week 1 matchup with LSU. Add in what will probably be a rematch with Clemson in the ACC championship, and you have three tough games. If they can get out of those three games with only 1 loss and avoid slipping up against sneaky teams like Florida or Pittsburgh, Florida State could make the playoffs.

The team that is most likely to prevent Florida State from making the playoffs, is former powerhouse Clemson. They have an elite defense including what might be the best D-line in college football, the best RB in the ACC (Will Shipley), and a QB who may develop into a star (Cade Klubnik). They are in basically the same situation as Florida State as far as the schedule goes. Just replace themselves with FSU and LSU with Notre Dame.

I believe Washington will be the best team in Pac 12 and end up winning the conference championship. Michael Penix Jr. is one of the top QBs in the country and their offense will be near unstoppable. They have something USC lacks, a defense. While it’s not the best defense in the Pac 12, it is certainly serviceable and good enough to go to the playoffs with. Their schedule is just much harder than the other teams in this category. USC, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, and Washington State are all tough and it will be hard to get out with just 1 loss.

Taking a look at the powerhouses, Ohio State definitely looks like the weakest. They just don’t have a great defense. Their offense will be sensational with top tier RBs, WRs, and O-lineman. Whoever ends up starting at QB will most likely experience some growing pains which may come back to bite them as they play against three brutal defenses in Notre Dame, Penn State, and Michigan.

Michigan is my top ranked team in the country and I believe they will go undefeated and go to the playoffs again. JJ McCarthy is a very good college QB, and their running game will the be the best in all of college ball. Their defense will be stout and their O-line is one of the best. Ohio State and Penn State will be the only challenges, but Michigan has dominated them over the last few years and I don’t suspect that trend to stop.

Alabama, LSU, and Georgia are all in similar situations as they are all in the SEC. They all have amazing talent on both sides on the ball and may be the most balanced teams in the country. Alabama and Georgia both have new, inexperienced QBs, while LSU has Jayden Daniels, who may be the best QB in the SEC. They are all studded with All-Americans all over the place, and I wouldn’t be very surprised if all three teams made it to the playoffs. In the end though, it will probably only be two of them, and my picks would be Alabama and Georgia. I believe they will have the top 2 defenses in the country and their running games will more than make up for growing pains at QB.

Alabama, Georgia, and Michigan are my final picks to make the playoffs along with Texas.

While Clemson, LSU, Ohio State, and Washington are all nice teams, their talent won’t quite make up for their tough schedules, or perhaps won’t be able to impress with the eye test as much as the 4 teams I picked.

As far as seeding goes it would probably go something like this: (I am assuming Alabama will beat Georgia in the SEC Championship)

1 Michigan Wolverines

2 Alabama Crimson Tide

3 Texas Longhorns

4 Georgia Bulldogs

Upset Alert

This year, each week I will choose three ranked teams that could get upset by unranked teams that week. My picks for Week 1:

#20 North Carolina at South Carolina – Whenever QB Spencer Rattler is hot, South Carolina is a problem for ranked teams like the Tar Heels.

#22 Illinois vs Toledo – Toledo is one of the top teams in the Group of 5 and my pick to win the MAC. They could definitely find a way to get Power 5 upset when it’s all said and done.

#10 Utah vs Florida – Florida beat them last year, and the roster as whole has a lot of talent. We’ll see if they can sweep the home and home.