I preview every NFL team, pick winners for awards, and my predictions for the playoffs:
It’s no secret that the conferences in the NFL are extremely unbalanced. The AFC has much more depth than the NFC. While a team like the Patriots would probably make the playoffs in the NFC, they are fighting an uphill battle to make the playoffs in the AFC. I will give a short preview of every NFL team, and keep in mind strength of schedule.
Chicago Bears
The Bears are in the middle of a rebuild. The roster is not looking good. They have bad O-Line, mediocre running backs, and a lack of depth on defense. There are some good spots though. DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney lead a promising receiving corps with Cole Kmet as a nice TE option. MLB looks pretty good with TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, and their safeties are nice with Jaquan Brisker and Eddie Jackson. The X-factor for Chicago is at QB. Justin Fields has not been great the last few years, but he has shown some potential. He ran for over 1,000 yards last season, but the passing has lacked. Can DJ Moore bring out what the Bears were hoping for in Fields when they drafted him? We’ll see. I don’t expect them to contend for the playoffs and will finish the season with 5-7 wins.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have been contending for the Super Bowl on a yearly basis, but are missing something special on defense. Their offense will be amazing again with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon along with the addition of Orlando Brown Jr. on the line. The defense on the other hand, did not get many reinforcements this offseason. They lost three long time, quality starters in Jessie Bates, Vonn Bell and Eli Apple, and replace them with inexperience. Nick Scott, Dax Hill, Jordan Battle, and Cam Taylor-Britt are all going to have to step in big ways for the defense to improve. The Bengals are going to be very good again, but I don’t see them going to the Super Bowl. They will get 10-13 wins.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are really good again across the board, all that’s left for the Bills is to take the next step in the running game and get to the Super Bowl. They’ll be relying on the combo of James Cook and newly acquired Damien Harris. They’re a lock to make the playoffs, but the running game has not been good enough in years past, and we’ll see if Cook and Harris can left them to the next level. They’ll contend for the Super Bowl, and get 10-13 wins.
Denver Broncos
Many (including myself) expected the Broncos to at least get to a playoff berth last year, but they ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL. I don’t expect to see a repeat this year with Sean Payton as their head coach, but they need Russell Wilson to get back to Seattle form. I just don’t think he can get back to that, and depth everywhere else on offense just isn’t very good. I don’t think the playoffs are much in the realm of possibility, in large part because of their tough conference, and I predict about 7-8 wins.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns are possibly the most infamous team in all of sports for their reputation of being bad year after year. Their roster as a whole looks fantastic. If Deshaun Watson gets back to what he was with the Texans, the Browns will have an elite QB. However, this is the Browns. The Browns are bad. They’re always bad, and they’re in the very good AFC. I could possibly see them making the playoffs, but probably not. I’m seeing 7-10 wins for them.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are now 3 years removed from a Super Bowl win, and while they lost a lot, they still have some good pieces from that roster. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tristan Wirfs, Vita Vea, Lavonte David, Devin White, Shaq Barrett, and Antoine Winfield Jr. are all still here and are all quality players. People forget how talented Tampa Bay really is, and contrary to popular opinion, I believe the Bucs will not be near contention for the no. 1 overall pick, especially because they are in such an easy division. I don’t see the playoffs happening, but 6-9 wins is achievable.
Arizona Cardinals
While I have faith in Tampa Bay, I do not have any ounce of faith in the Cardinals. Their roster is garbage, especially on defense. Kyler Murray is OK at QB, Marquise Brown is a fine deep threat, Rondale Moore is a fine slot guy, but the O-Line and run game stink. The defense is trash across the board outside of Budda Baker. I expect 3-5 wins.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have a really good roster like last year, and add a good, proven OC to run their offense. Justin Herbert is a top 10 QB in the NFL, and is receiving options are great. Ekeler is a great ball catcher out of the back field while Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer, and rookie Quentin Johnston are nice WRs. Their main problem the last few years has been consistency. Sometimes they just lay an egg for no particular reason like against the Jaguars last year in the playoffs, and against the Raiders before the playoffs the year before. They are definitely in playoff contention again and you can expect to see 9-10 wins.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL again. They have a stacked roster and one of the best QBs of all time. They have a manageable division, and I expect big things out of Isaiah Pacheco. The only obstacle in their way of repeating is history. It has been 20 years since a team has repeated as a super bowl champion. I expect 12-14 wins.
Indianapolis Colts
After years of trying to contend, it’s time for a rebuild for the Colts. Their roster is OK. The O-line might be fine, Anthony Richardson has potential, and the D-line is good. It looks like Jonathan Taylor will be traded, so that kills their offense. They’ll probably have a very bad season, which is fine since they want a high draft pick, and they’ll get 3-6 wins.
Washington Commanders
Washington has been mediocre for a while. The main culprit has been less than stellar QB play. They have talent everywhere on the roster, and they hope Sam Howell can become the man. I think he has the potential. Howell was electric at UNC in college, and he has good weapons to throw to. The Commanders could be a sleepy playoff contender and should get 7-10 wins this season.
Dallas Cowboys
I have mixed feelings about the Cowboys. They are consistently a stellar regular season team with budding stars littered across both sides of the ball. However, their performance, for one reason or another, plummets in quality during the playoffs, especially the performance of QB Dak Prescott. They have a really nice team, but can they win when it matters? I once again expect them to have a good regular season with 10-13 wins.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are my top breakout pick of this NFL season. When Tua was healthy last year, Miami had one of the top offenses in the NFL. With Vic Fangio, young talent, and Jalen Ramsey at some point, the defense could be elite. They have the best receiving tandem in the NFL with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (sorry Bengals fans), and the O-line could be improved, which will lead to better running numbers. Tua MUST stay healthy if the Dolphins wish to find success. Skylar Thompson has potential as a backup, but he is not consistent. If Tua misses significant time, the Dolphins may miss the playoffs with the AFC being as tough as it is this year. As long as Tua is healthy, the Dolphins are a Super Bowl contender and should expect to see 9-13 wins. (9 if Tua gets injured for significant time).
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles lost the Super Bowl in heartbreaking fashion last year, but return a lot of talent in 2023. They have a monster offense with the best O-line in the NFL, one of the best receiving tandems with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, a top 10 TE, and a nice group of RBs. The defense lost some depth, but is still stacked with top end talent. They should be in Super Bowl contention again (especially since the NFC is so bad), and they will get 12-14 wins.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is kind of in a similar situation to the Commanders. They have been mediocre since the lost in the Super Bowl, and they have some nice players, but have lacked a good QB. Unlike the Commanders, I don’t see Desmond Ridder having an above average season. A total lack of depth anywhere outside of RB doesn’t help either. One thing that helps though, is the fact that they are in the worst division in the NFC, so I would not be surprised if they made the playoffs by doing better than 3 other mediocre teams. Much like Tampa Bay, I expect 6-9 wins.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers were really good last year, but they ran out of QBs in the end as they lost to the Eagles in the NFC Championship. They return most of their main contributors on offense, and the defense may be the best in the NFL. The X-factor here is Brock Purdy. He had an improbable good season last year, but many backup QBs that have good seasons go back to being mediocre the next, so we’ll see if Brock Purdy is the real deal. The 49ers will get about 11-13 wins.
New York Giants
The Giants seem like they are on the rise, but we’ll see if they can sustain their success from last year after they made it to the divisional round. The only problem I see on the team is a lack of a playmaker at WR, and depth in the secondary. I could see them making the playoffs again and getting 8-10 wins.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Against all odds, the Jaguars got a winning record, won their division, and won a playoff game last year. The skill positions are stacked with talent, but the O-line is not looking good. All their nice weapons won’t matter that much if the O-line doesn’t improve this year. the defense has some young talent that needs to improve from last year. Their team has a high ceiling, but the floor is low. They should be the best team in their overall weak division though, so I expect them to make the playoffs again, however I don’t see them getting a win. Probably 8-10 wins this year.
New York Jets
The Jets have a great defense, good skills, and now a HOF QB. All they need now is to stay healthy and have a some improvement from their O-line, which may be their achilles heel. They should be very good and contend for the playoffs, but a deep run may be difficult with their weak O-line. I expect 9-12 wins.
Detroit Lions
While Miami is my no. 1 breakout pick, the Lions are my no. 2. They were on fire at the end of last year and just barely missed out on the playoffs. Jared Goff had one of the best seasons of his career. While Jameson Williams is out for the first 6 games of the season, Jahmyr Gibbs should be a great option out of the backfield. The only thing that could possibly hold this team back is their defense, but I expect it to be improved from last year with the additions of Jack Campbell and CJ Gardner-Johnson along with the development Aidan Hutchinson. I think the Lions will win their division and get 10-12 wins.
Green Bay Packers
After many years of dominating the NFC North, their reign has come to an end. The Vikings won the division last year, and I expect the Lions to win the division this year. Even with Aaron Rodgers last year, the offense was not very good. This year they have Jordan Love, who we have not seen much action from. The receivers are young and may be better this year, but it would be a stretch to say they have a good receiving corps. I expect the defense to be solid though, and so will the running game. I can see them maybe making a push for the playoffs if Love surprises with a good season. I expect 7-9 wins.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers got the no. 1 QB in this year’s draft with Bryce Young. The pieces around him that don’t seem half bad. Miles Sanders was a really good RB for the Eagles, Adam Thielen was a good slot guy for the Vikings, and they got some interesting young talent with DJ Chark Jr., Jonathan Mingo, Terrace Marshall, and Laviska Shenault Jr. The o-Line isn’t terrible either. The defense is young and interesting as well with Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, Jaycee Horn, and Vonn Bell. They also are in a bad division which gives them a chance to compete for the playoffs. However, notice how I said they have a lot of young talent. Teams made up of almost exclusively young, inexperienced players don’t tend to do super well. With all that being said, I think they will get 6-9 wins.
New England Patriots
The Patriots have an offensive coordinator which automatically makes them better than last year. Their roster is also improved with Juju Smith-Shuster and Mike Gesicki on offense, and Christian Gonzalez on defense. Speaking of their defense, they were very good last year. The real problem was their offense, which as I said earlier, has a real play caller. I expect Mac Jones to be improved, and Rhamondre Stevenson could be in for a breakout season. My only problem with this team is their schedule. The Dolphins twice, Jets twice, Bills twice, the Eagles, Cowboys, and Chiefs make up a gauntlet that would be tough for any team to navigate. I don’t see them making the playoffs, but they might be able to geta winning record. 7-9 wins for the Patriots.
Las Vegas Raiders
While they were not very good last year, they were still exciting. Will they be as exciting with Jimmy G instead of Derek Carr? Probably not. Josh Jacobs is a top 5 RB, Davante Adams is a top 5 WR, and Maxx Crosby is a top 5 edge rusher, so they have high-end talent, but the rest of the roster is lacking. I don’t think they will contend for the playoffs and they can expect 5-7 wins.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams won the Super Bowl two years ago, and now they might be the worst team in the NFL. Their defense, which used to be their strength, now only has Aaron Donald. I seriously haven’t heard of almost any of these guys, though I think Byron Young could be a nice rookie. Things are a little better on offense with Matthew Stafford, Copper Kupp, and Tyler Higbee. The O-line looks terrible, Cam Akers hasn’t been the same since his injury, and the receivers behind Kupp just aren’t all that good. I expect 3-5 wins from the Rams.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens made some moves, and their receiving corps is much improved. Their team is very good when Lamar is healthy, but a healthy Lamar has been hard to come by towards the end of the season lately. Their defense looks pretty good, but the D-line should be cause for concern, especially if there’s injury. I can see the Ravens being very good and possibly contending to win their division, but Lamar must stay healthy. I expect to see 10-12 wins.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have a good roster. They have weapons, a pretty good QB, and a good defense. Their problems is age and depth, which don’t go well together. The Saints have a managble division and should go to the playoffs if they stay healthy, but that could be a pretty big IF come January. I expect 7-10 wins.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks got a pleasant surprise last year with a good season from Geno Smith at QB. I expect Seattle to build on that success this year. The O-line was young and should be even better this year, the RVB corps is solid with Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet, the receiver room is loaded, and the secondary is littered with studs. The problems lie with teh D-line. They need to get better at rushing the QB. The Seahawks are in for a big season and should get 10-13 wins.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin, and that trend should continue if the O-line fines improvement. The offense is good at the skill positions and I expect a step forward for Kenny Pickett in year 2, but in order for that step to become a playoff leap, the o-line MUST be better. The defense should be good though with a healthy TJ Watt. They should get 8-10 wins.
Houston Texans
The Texans are rebuilding and will be bad this year, however, they have some nice pieces, especially on defense. Will Anderson Jr, Jalen Pitre, and Derek Stingley should make up a solid young corps on D, while CJ Stroud will probably have an up and down rookie season at QB. I see 4-7 wins.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans took a huge step back last year but still were close to making the playoffs. I don’t think they’ll be able to compete for a wildcard spot this year, so the Jaguars are their main obstacle towards playoff contention. The addition of Deandre Hopkins helps their middling receiving corps, and Derrick Henry is always a beast. With more consistency on defense and on their o-line, I can see them making the playoffs. They should get 7-10 wins.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings had an improbable 13-4 season last year. They won almost all of those games by one possession. They were slaughtered by the Giants in the wildcard round, and their roster looks more of the same from last year. The defense was bad last year. If they want to win their division, they need to be able to stop the Lions offense. I expect a step down from last season as I would be shocked if they had the same luck in close games. They will be a playoff contender with 9-11 wins.
Awards
MVP
While I would love to give this award to a WR like Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill, its going to go to a QB like always. My top three candidates are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Tua Tagovailoa. They are the top QBs from super bowl contending teams. My favorite of the bunch is Josh Allen, who is the most durable and still has not won the award yet.
OPOY
This is where I can get to some of the receivers I like. Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson are in for big seasons. Saquon Barkley I also think will have a big year at RB. In the end I think Tyreek Hill will win the award after a huge season with a healthier Tua.
DPOY
My three candidates here are Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, and Nick Bosa. While I find it very surprising that Myles Garrett has never won the award, I’m going with Micah Parsons to win it this year, as he is still young and is a versatile machine for the Cowboys.
Offensive Rookie
My three candidates are Bryce Young, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs. The reason why I didn’t include any of top WRs is because I don’t invision many of them getting much of shot of even being a top 2 WR on their teams. My pick for this year is Bijan Robinson. The Falcons are going to use him however they can, and his sheer talent is amazing on its own.
Defensive Rookie
My three candidates are Will Anderson Jr., Jalen Carter, and Devon Witherspoon. My pick is Will Anderson Jr. Going into the draft I thought he was the best prospect, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a double digit sack season.
Playoffs
I will have two separate playoff predictions. One that more follows my rankings a bit more, and one that is a little more cooky and follows some key trends.
Prediction Number 1:
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Miami Dolphins
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Buffalo Bills
- Baltimore Ravens
- New York Jets
In the Hunt
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- New England Patriots
- Cleveland Browns
NFC
- Philadelphia Eagles
- San Francisco 49ers
- Detroit Lions
- New Orleans Saints
- Seattle Seahawks
- Dallas Cowboys
- New York Giants
In the Hunt
- Minnesota Vikings
- Washington Commanders
In this scenario, my pick for the Super Bowl is the Dolphins vs the Eagles. What a story that would be. Tua vs Hurts. I think the Miami Dolphins will win the Super Bowl as their offense will be completely unstoppable.
Prediction Number 2:
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Buffalo Bills
- Tennessee Titans
- New York Jets
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
In the Hunt
- Baltimore Ravens
- Denver Broncos
- Cleveland Browns
NFC
- Dallas Cowboys
- Detroit Lions
- Seattle Seahawks
- Carolina Panthers
- San Francisco 49ers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Washington Commanders
In the Hunt
- New York Giants
- Minnesota Vikings
- New Orleans Saints
There are a few key statistics I took into account in this scenario. One is that a team has not won the NFC East two years in a row since 2003-2004, hence why I picked the Cowboys to win the division over the Eagles. Also factoring into that pick is that the team that loses the Super Bowl almost always does much worse the next season, that team being the Eagles this year.
Next stat, an average of 6 new teams make the playoffs every year. My picks were the Titans, Jets, Steelers, Lions, Panthers, and Commanders. The Titans have an easy division, and the Jaguars could easily fall apart due to youth. The Jets have Aaron Rodgers now to pair with an amazing defense. The Steelers have never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin making it likely that they will repeat that trend and usually teams with winning records make the playoffs. The Lions are poised to breakout this year with an electric offense. The Panthers have a nice young team that was good at times this year, and if Bryce Young clicks immediately with his receivers, the Panthers could be dangerous. The Commanders are really good almost everywhere on the roster, and if Sam Howell does really good, which he might, they could have a huge season.
Notice how I did not include the Dolphins or Ravens this time around. This is because both team’s QBs have a had a history of injuries, and that could hurt them in big ways this year.
My pick for the Super Bowl in this scenario is the Bills vs the 49ers. Both teams finally get over the hump after several years of knocking on the door of greatness. My pick to win it all is the Buffalo Bills with much better QB play than San Francisco.
Super Bowl Contenders and their X-Factor
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs: Breakout production from the WR postion.
- Buffalo Bills: Improved running game.
- Cincinnati Bengals: No step back from secondary.
- Miami Dolphins: Keep Tua healthy.
- New York Jets: An Aaron Rodgers return to MVP level play.
NFC
- Philadelphia Eagles: No regression in the secondary.
- San Francisco 49ers: Stay healthy and improvement from Brock Purdy.
- Dallas Cowboys: Be good in big moments.
- Detroit Lions: Break the curse.
- Seattle Seahawks: Improved D-Line.
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