My Preview of the best teams in the Group of 5:
American
- USF Bulls
- Tulane Green Wave
- Memphis Tigers
- UTSA Roadrunners
- North Texas Mean Green
- Rice Owls
- Army Black Knights
- FAU Owls
- UAB Blazers
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane
- Navy Midshipmen
- East Carolina Pirates
- Temple Owls
- Charlotte 49ers
USF Bulls
Projected 2024 Record: 9-3
2023 Record: 7-6
Toughest Games: at Alabama, vs Miami (FL), at Tulane
USF is my favorite to win the AAC. In a time where so many team’s rosters are changing, USF is returning 17 starters, including 9 on their high-powered offense. QB Byrum Brown broke out as a freshman last year and broke several USF passing records. One can only imagine who much better he could be in year 2. If the defense improves, USF could be really good.
The problem? USF has to play against Alabama, Miami, Tulane, and Memphis in the first 6 games of the season. Even if USF goes 3-3 in that stretch, it should be smooth sailing the rest of the way as Rice would probably be the toughest test left.
In the end, USF is one of the most talented Group of 5 teams in the country with a lot of experience, and an upcoming head coach. Their schedule is tough, but a few quality wins could go a long way to get in the playoffs over teams from weaker conferences.
Tulane Green Wave
Projected 2024 Record: 9-3
2023 Record: 11-3
Toughest Games: vs Kansas State, at Oklahoma, vs USF
Tulane lost head coach Willie Fritz in the offseason, but they may have found the best possible replacement in Troy’s Jon Sumrall. Sumrall was able to keep a lot of Tulane’s impact players from entering the transfer portal, and he was able to take some players from Troy with him. I am especially intrigued by their receiver room that includes two receivers from premier power 5 programs: Shazz Preston (Alabama) and Mario Williams (Oklahoma/USC). There’s a chance Tulane could be even better than last year.
I have 2 problems with the Green Wave, one of which is similar to USF. The beginning of the year will be brutal with games against Kansas State, Oklahoma, and USF in the first 5 weeks. Then in the regular season finale they must play Memphis. Once again, if they could even go 2-2 in those 4 games, they have a good shot at the playoffs. My other problem with Tulane is the loss of QB Michael Pratt. It’s not everyday a team like Tulane can get an NFL caliber QB. I don’t know if Ty Thompson or Kai Horton can fill the bill.
Tulane should be neck and neck with the other top teams in the AAC, and should be able to rack up some quality wins to set themselves apart from teams in other conferences.
Memphis Tigers
Projected 2024 Record: 9-3
2023 record: 10-3
Toughest Games: at Florida State, at USF, at Tulane
While the schedule still is tough, Memphis does benefit from having those games spread out throughout the season I think. One of the main points people make when arguing that Memphis is a playoff contender is their passing game as their stellar QB and receivers all return after a big year. I agree. Memphis should have the best passing attack in the AAC. The running game should be good too as they have one of the better O-lines in the conference.
My problem with Memphis lies on the defense. They are inexperienced, and they were not good last year, especially in the secondary. They will have a hard time stopping some of the American’s best offenses.
Memphis should be a very good team this year, and if they can get some things touched up on defense, they could be a real threat.
Mountain West
- Boise State Broncos
- UNLV Rebels
- Fresno State Bulldogs
- Colorado State Rams
- Air Force Falcons
- Wyoming Cowboys
- Utah State Aggies
- San Diego State Aztecs
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
- San Jose State Spartans
- New Mexico Lobos
- Nevada Wolfpack
Boise State Broncos
Projected 2024 Record: 11-1
2023 Record: 8-6
Toughest Games: at Oregon, vs Washington State, at UNLV
Boise State should be the most talented team in the Group of 5 with multiple former 5 stars and several 4 stars on the squad. RB Ashton Jeanty should be a beast yet again this year after getting nearly 160 scrimmage yards per game last year. QB Malachi Nelson and WR Chris Marshall have the potential to be among the most deadly duos in the MW if Nelson lives up to the have and Marshall matures off the field. Boise State should have one of the best defenses in the MW as well.
There a couple things that could be problems though. First, the coach. Spencer Danielson was the interim last year. The Broncos were really good and won the conference during that short 4-game span, but successful interims don’t always keep it up the next year. The other problem is the schedule. I don’t see Boise State having much of a chance against Oregon, and the rest of the schedule is weak. It really depends on how much the committee cares about SOS for Group of 5 teams.
I think Boise State is going to be really good this year, but they may have to blowout teams to prove it.
Sun Belt
- Appalachian State Mountaineers
- Texas State Bobcats
- James Madison Dukes
- Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
- South Alabama Jaguars
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
- Old Dominion Monarchs
- Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Marshall Thundering Herd
- Georgia Southern Eagles
- Troy Trojans
- Georgia State Panthers
- Southern Miss Eagles
- ULM Warhawks
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Projected 2024 Record: 11-1
2023 Record: 9-5
Toughest Games: at Clemson, vs Liberty, at Louisiana
App State has been among the most consistent Group of 5 programs in the country over the CFP era. They have a lot returning this year on both sides of the ball including 9 starters on the Sun Belt’s best defense. They also return of the best QBs in the conference and a trio of talented RBs. The schedule is nice too with a chance to playa against another premium G5 team in Liberty.
Where do they lack? App State doesn’t have quite the talent or depth that the AAC teams or Boise State have. They also have a slim margin for error. If App State loses to Liberty, they may have to kiss their chances at a CFP appearance goodbye.
App State is by far the best team in the Sun Belt, but Liberty is a must win.
C-USA
- Liberty Flames
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
- MTSU Blue Raiders
- Sam Houston Bearcats
- FIU Panthers
- NMSU Aggies
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
- Kennesaw State Bulldogs
- UTEP Miners
Liberty Flames
Projected 2024 Record: 11-1
2023 Record: 13-1
Toughest Games: at App State, vs Jacksonville State, at MTSU
Liberty is returning most of their roster from a season where they were undefeated until they got slaughtered in the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon. The best part of this roster is Kaidon Salter, who may be the best QB of any of the teams I’ve mentioned today. They also have an extremely easy schedule that may result in them going undefeated again.
Liberty’s only fault is that they probably have to go undefeated like they did last yea as all the other contenders have a much better strength of schedule.
Liberty will blaze through the C-USA schedule, but that game against App State is the key.
MAC
- Miami RedHawks
- Toledo Rockets
- Bowling Green Falcons
- Eastern Michigan Eagles
- Northern Illinois Huskies
- Ohio Bobcats
- Western Michigan Broncos
- Central Michigan Chippewas
- Buffalo Bulls
- Akron Zips
- Ball State Cardinals
- Kent State Golden Flashes
I don’t think any of these teams are good enough to make a run at the playoffs
Conclusion
So which team is going to the playoffs? My guess is Boise State. I think Boise State will not only have the best record, but also pass the eye test better than any other team on the last. That coupled with the superior talent and the name-brand, the Broncos should be on their way to the playoffs.
American Champion: USF Bulls
Mountain West Champion: Boise State Broncos
Sun Belt Champions: Appalachian State Mountaineers
C-USA Champions: Liberty Flames
MAC Champion: Miami RedHawks
JacobErwin.com 