My preview for all 16 Big 12 teams in 2024:
- Utah Utes
- Kanas State Wildcats
- Kansas Jayhawks
- Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Arizona Wildcats
- Iowa State Cyclones
- West Virginia Mountaineers
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- BYU Cougars
- TCU Horned Frogs
- UCF Golden Knights
- Baylor Bears
- Houston Cougars
- Colorado Buffaloes
- Arizona State Sun Devils
- Cincinnati Bearcats
Arizona Wildcats
Projected 2024 Record: 8-4
2023 Record: 10-3
Toughest Games: at Kansas State, at Utah, vs West Virginia
Arizona unfortunately lost HC Jedd Fisch in the offseason, but I think they found a very good replacement in Brent Brennan. He did a great job in the offseason by keeping some key players from transferring, including one of the best QB-WR duo in Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan. The O-line should be good as well. The defense is a bigger question as most of the D-line went to Washington with Fisch, but the rest of the unit should be good.
The schedule is decent as they avoid Oklahoma State and Kansas while the KSU game is technically a non-conference game.
Arizona has a very good shot at winning the Big 12 this year despite the coaching changes. The are good in almost every area, and have one of the best QBs in the conference. There are just some teams that I think are a little better.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Projected 2024 Record: 4-8
2023 Record: 3-9
Toughest Games: vs Utah, at Oklahoma State, at Kansas State
Arizona State does not benefit from the same schedule that Arizona gets. They must play against Utah, OKST, KSU, and Kansas as well as Arizona and Texas Tech. Mississippi State is also going to be a challenge in the non-conference.
I thought Arizona State showed some promise in Year 1 under Kenny Dillingham despite the 3-9 record. The offense has some decent skill position players and seems like they will be fine at QB. The defense added a lot of transfers, and I expect that they should be improved as well. What this team really lacks is star power. Nobody on this team is a proven All-conference level performer, which is needed to be a contender.
Arizona State should be improved, but they really got an unlucky draw with their conference schedule as they enter the Big 12.
Baylor Bears
Projected 2024 Record: 5-7
2023 Record: 3-9
Toughest Games: at Utah, vs Oklahoma State, vs Kansas
Dave Aranda’s job is in trouble after several disappointing years in a row. He made a bunch of changes to the staff, and they brought in transfer QB Dequan Finn, who could be really good at the Big 12 level after being a star at Toledo. He also has a good group of WRs to throw to. Dave Aranda is taking over the defense, and that should improve things immediately. The roster on defense doesn’t look that much better though.
The schedule is kinda tough, but their week two meeting with Utah does not count toward their conference record, so that’s a plus. They also avoid playing Kansas State and Arizona.
Baylor should be improved on offense with better QB play alone, but the defense is less of a sure thing. Better coaching can only go so far. They could make a bowl game if they find a difference maker on that side of the ball, but I don’t know who that could be.
BYU Cougars
Projected 2024 Record: 6-6
2023 Record: 5-7
Toughest Games: vs Kansas State, at Utah, vs Kansas
BYU has just about the toughest schedule they could have been dealt as they must play the top 5 teams in the conference and SMU in the nonconference. I think BYU could be decent though and possibly win a game in that gauntlet. QB Jake Retzlaff and RB LJ Martin have star potential. Receiver might be the strength of the offense with the return of Kody Epps, Darius Lassiter, and Chase Roberts. The defense is where the problems are. I think they should be improved in their second year under DC Jay Hill, but I’m don’t think they will be good enough to raise the team to contender status.
Kalani Sitake has had a lot of success at BYU, but they did not get off to a good start in the Big 12. They have a rough schedule, but I believe they have the talent to compete for bowl eligibility.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Projected 2024 Record: 4-8
2023 Record: 3-9
Toughest Games: at Texas Tech, at Iowa State, at Kansas State
Cincinnati dropped off a cliff after Luke Fickell left, and I don’t see them getting back to his heights as a coach anytime soon. Scott Satterfield had success at App State, but it doesn’t seem like he is ready to build a contender at a power program like Cincinnati.
The offense has a lot of experience, but I don’t think they have a QB that can win a game on his heroics alone. On the defensive side of the ball, they added a lot of transfers, and they could be decent if they can gel.
The schedule may be the easiest in the conference as they avoid Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Arizona. I’m not sure if they will be good enough to take advantage though.
Cincinnati is still rebuilding after their Luke Fickell glory years, and it may take time to become a contender in the Big 12. At this point, if I were a Cincinnati fan, I would be happy to just finish above last in the conference.
Colorado Buffaloes
Projected 2024 Record: 3-9
2023 Record: 4-8
Toughest Games: vs Kansas State, vs Utah, vs Kansas
Colorado had a lot of hype last year, and they lived up to it for 3 weeks. They return a lot of top end talent including QB Shedeur Sanders, WR/CB Travis Hunter, and WR Jimmy Horn Jr. They may have more NFL talent than most other teams in the conference, but their depth across their whole roster is lacking.
I also worry about coaching. Colorado had some close calls, and even lost some games that they should have won given their high end talent. The schedule is really tough as well as they must play against the top 5 teams in the conference.
Colorado has some high upside, but that clearly didn’t work last year and I don’t like the overall culture of the team. Their performance in week 2 at Nebraska should be telling.
Houston Cougars
Projected 2024 Record: 5-7
2023 Record: 4-8
Toughest Games: at Oklahoma, vs Utah, vs Kansas State
Houston managed to hire Tulane’s Willie Fritz to be their head coach going forward, and I think it was a good hire. The roster isn’t great right now, so I don’t expect much of an immediate improvement
QB Donovan Smith is a bright spot on an otherwise unimpressive roster. The rest offense looks decent, but they really aren’t anything to get excited about. The defense got some transfers this offseason to replace departing starters from last year, and should be okay with a new DC.
Overall, Houston should be decent this year, but this is just the beginning of what could be a good team a few years down the line with Willie Fritz at the helm.
Iowa State Cyclones
Projected 2024 record: 9-3
2023 Record: 7-6
Toughest Games: vs Kansas, at Utah, vs Kansas State
Iowa State returns 8 starters on offense, 9 starters on defense, and head coach Matt Campbell. The defense has always been one of the best in the conference under Campbell, and this unit is very experienced this year. The offense should be good as well with the return of the 2023 Big 12 Freshman of the Year QB Rocco Becht. I don’t know about you, but I thought that in he second half of the season last year, Abu Sama III looked like one of the best RBs in the country.
The schedule is easy on the front end, but the last 4 weeks of the season include the top 3 teams in the conference, so it will be very important that the Cyclones remain healthy for that stretch.
Iowa State could have a big year and win the Big 12. They just need to show up against the other top teams in the conference. That has been a big problem for them over the last few years.
Kansas Jayhawks
Projected 2024 Record: 9-3
2023 Record: 9-4
Toughest Games: at West Virginia, at Kansas State, vs Iowa State
Kansas returns several starters on both sides of the ball including the best QB/RB combo in the conference with Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal. The offense should be explosive and one of the best in the country as they have one of the better receiving corps in the Big 12 as well. The defense won’t be as good as the offense, but it has show some improvement over the years, and they have some decent talent coming in.
The schedule is extremely favorable as they avoid Utah, Oklahoma State, and Arizona. Kansas can truly shine now that they don’t have Texas and Oklahoma to deal with.
The true X-factor for Kansas? They have the best HC in the Big 12 in Lance Leipold. In what is shaping up to be a wild year in the Big 12, I think Kansas will be put in a position to succeed every single week.
Kansas State Wildcats
Projected 2024 Record: 10-2
2023 Record: 9-4
Toughest Games: vs Arizona, vs Oklahoma State, vs Kansas
I may have just said that Lance Leipold was the best HC in the conference, but Chris Klieman is right up there with him. The main thing I believe seperates KSU from Kansas is the defense. They should have a top 3 defense in the conference while Kansas could be middle of the pack. The offense is really good as while. Though not as good as Kansas, the QB-RB tandem is really good with Avery Johnson and DJ Giddens. I think Avery Johnson has All-Big 12 potential. The offensive line should also be better than Kansas’.
While the team is better, the schedule is not. KSU has to play against Oklahoma State, but that’s really the main difference.
Kansas State has a very good chance of going to the playoffs this year. They should have a top 3 defense and a top 5 offense with a top 3 coach. The Wildcats should be a Big 12 powerhouse for years to come.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Projected 2024 Record: 9-3
2023 Record: 10-4
Toughest Games: vs Utah, at Kansas State, vs West Virginia
Oklahoma State returns every starter (except for two) on a team that made it to the Big 12 championship last year. The offense should be very good as Ollie Gordon II is the best RB in the country. OKST also has an underrated passing game with QB Alan Bowman and a good receiving corps. While the defense is experienced, they also were not great last year. Hopefully for the Cowboys’, their experience turns into production.
The schedule has some challenges, but isn’t terrible. While they do play Utah and Kansas State, they avoid Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State.
Oklahoma State should be very good again, and contend for a Big 12 championship. They just need to win at least one of those crucial games early in the season against Utah and KSU.
TCU Horned Frogs
Projected 2024 Record: 6-6
2023 Record: 5-7
Toughest Games: vs Kansas, at Utah, vs Oklahoma State
TCU should have a decent offense this year. QB Josh Hoover was surprisingly good at times last year, and he has some good receivers to throw to. The O-Line could be the weakness though, and that is the most important part of an offense. The defense got a new DC in Andy Avalos which could help, but I’m not too sure.
The schedule is pretty tough, but that can be said for most teams in the conference.
TCU was playing on house money when they went to the championship in 2022, but are now in the second year of a rebuild. They should be better this year, but I don’t expect them to be contend for a Big 12 title yet.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Projected 2024 Record: 8-4
2023 Record: 7-6
Toughest Games: at Arizona, at Iowa State, at Oklahoma State
I really like what Joey McGuire has been building here, especially in recruiting. Now they just need some on-field results, and this might be the year. TTU should have a very good offense this year. They landed a 5-star recruit for the receiver room, they grabbed some quality lineman in the portal, QB Behren Morton is good when healthy, and they return one of the best RBs in the country in RB Tahj Brooks. The front 7 on defense should be good, but the secondary is the team’s weakness.
The schedule is pretty easy as they avoid both Kansas teams and Utah.
Texas Tech is in a position where they could surprise people and make a run at a Big 12 title. It just all needs to come together, and someone needs to emerge on defense as a star.
UCF Golden Knights
Projected 2024 Record: 6-6
2023 Record: 6-7
Toughest Games: at Florida, vs Arizona, vs Utah
UCF has made some good additions in the portal on both sides of the ball, including QB KJ Jefferson. Jefferson is a perfect fit for Gus Malzahn’s system, and he has a some great weapons to throw to. The defense was their weakness last year, but should be improved this year with the transfers, and more experience from their young players.
The schedule has some tough teams, but some easy ones as well, so this could be a streaky year for the Golden Knights.
UCF has a pretty high ceiling this year, but I don’t think they are quite ready to compete at a high level yet. They defense is still a step behind the rest of the conference and it may take a while for all the transfers to gel. UCF could miss a bowl this year, or they could get 8 wins. They are a really tough team to judge as Gus Malzahn’s teams usually are.
Utah Utes
Projected 2024 Record: 11-1
2023 Record: 8-5
Toughest Games: at Oklahoma State, vs Arizona, vs Iowa State
Utah should be very good this year with the return of QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe. The receiving corps is looking really good with WRs Dorian Singer and Money Parks. The running game should be really good with Micah Bernard and Jaylon Glover leading the way. The defense has always been good under HC Kyle Whittingham, and they are returning 8 starters this year.
Utah was riddled with injuries last year in a brutal Pac 12 schedule, and they still managed to get 8 wins. This year, they return a lot of experience, and they have an easier schedule.
Utah is the team to beat as they enter the Big 12. They have been hovering around playoff contention for several years now, and I think this is the year that they finally get over the hump.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Projected 2024 Record: 8-4
2023 Record: 9-4
Toughest Games: vs Penn State, at Oklahoma State, vs Kansas
Neal Brown saved his job last season with a surprise 9-4 outing. The run game should be one of the best in the country this year and they have a good QB in Garrett Greene. The O-line should be really good, and the receiving corps has some promise. The defense should be good as well as they bolstered their depth in the portal.
The schedule is pretty tough as they must play Penn State in con-conference play, and they must play Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Arizona, and Texas Tech in conference.
West Virginia is positioned to have another great year. The only thing that I believe separates them from the top teams in the conference is star power.
Conclusion
There are two tiers of contenders in this conference. The top 3 being Utah, Kansas State, and Kansas. The next tier is a bunch of teams that if they can get a few more stars to emerge, or if they hit a lucky streak like TCU in 2022, could make a run at a conference title. Those include Oklahoma State, Arizona, Iowa State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech. In the end, I believe Utah and Kansas State will have a Big 12 title showdown at the end of the year to see who gets an auto bid into the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised however, if the Big 12 got an at large bid, but that would probably require some chaos in the SEC and Big Ten.
Big 12 Champion: Utah
All Big 12 First team
Offense
QB – Jalon Daniels (Kansas)
RB – Ollie Gordon II (Oklahoma State)
RB – Tahj Brooks (Texas Tech)
AP – Devin Neal (Kansas)
WR – Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)
WR – Kobe Hudson (UCF)
WR – Travis Hunter (Colorado)
TE – Brant Kuithe (Utah)
OL – Joe Michalski (Oklahoma State)
OL – Wyatt Milum (West Virginia)
OL – Luke Kandra (Cincinnati)
OL – Tomas Rimac (West Virginia)
OL – Jona Savaiinaea (Arizona)
Defense
DL – Junior Tafuna (Utah)
DL – Tyler Batty (BYU)
DL – Lee Hunter (UCF)
DL – Jereme Robinson (Kansas)
LB – Collin Oliver (Oklahoma State)
LB – Nickolas Martin (Oklahoma State)
LB – Karene Reid (Utah)
LB – Jacob Manu (Arizona)
CB – Travis Hunter (Colorado)
CB – Zemaiah Vaughn (Utah)
S – Jeremiah Cooper (Iowa State)
S – Aubrey Burks (West Virginia)
Special Teams
K – Cole Becker (Utah)
P – Jack Bouwmeester (Utah)
KR – Drae McCray (Texas Tech)
PR – Josh Cameron (Baylor)
Awards
MVP: Ollie Gordon II (Oklahoma State)
OPOY: Tahj Brooks (Texas Tech)
DPOY: Travis Hunter (Colorado)
Breakout Player: Avery Johnson (Kansas State)
The Grinder: Abu Sama III (Iowa State)
JacobErwin.com 