The Tiers of College Football

I put every FBS team into tiers:

The way I think of tiers is that you could rank teams in the same tier in any order, and it would make sense.

Tier 1: Championship Contenders

Texas
Ohio State
Alabama
Georgia
Oregon
Ole Miss

These are the only teams that I think could win a championship this year. All 6 of them are virtual locks to make the playoffs in my opinion.

Tier 2: At-Large Contenders

LSU
Notre Dame
Missouri
Michigan
Tennessee
Oklahoma

These are the teams that I believe are good enough to make the playoffs without winning their conference. They all have the potential to win a game or two in the playoffs, but I don’t think they can win a championship.

Tier 3: ACC/Big 12 Contenders + Penn State

Miami (FL)
Utah
Florida State
Penn State
Kansas State
Clemson
Kansas

These teams are all good enough to compete for conference titles and make the playoffs that way, but likely won’t compete for an at-large bid. Penn State is the exception here as they are not good enough to contend for a Big Ten title or get an at large bid, though they would be good enough to win the Big 12 or ACC if they were in one of those conferences.

Tier 4: A Missing Piece

Boise State
Kentucky
Oklahoma State
Auburn
Florida
Arizona
USC
Texas A&M

These teams are all just a step behind tier 3 for one reason or another. They all have something that’s key that is missing that prevents them from really getting over the top.

Tier 5: Borderline Top 25

Louisville
NCST
USF
Iowa State
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Tulane
West Virginia
Texas Tech
Memphis
SMU
Virginia Tech

I could see any of these teams finishing in the top 25 as they all have some-what high ceilings and high floors as well.

Tier 6: Trap Teams

South Carolina
Appalachian State
North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Liberty
UNLV
Rutgers
Iowa
Fresno State
UTSA

These teams are good enough to pull off an upset of a top team, but lack consistency. I could see some of these teams making the Top 25 throughout the season, but I don’t think any of them will be able to get a Top 25 finish.

Tier 7: Mediocre

BYU
Washington
Maryland
Minnesota
Michigan State
TCU
UCF
Baylor
Houston
Mississippi State
Texas State
Arkansas

These teams aren’t pushovers, but I don’t see any of them being able to upset a really good team. They could scare a team or two, but these teams are really just competing for a winning record.

Tier 8: Below Average

Colorado State
California
Boston College
Syracuse
Colorado
UCLA
Indiana
Arizona State
Air Force
James Madison
Cincinnati

These teams probably won’t pose a threat to top 25 caliber teams. They may produce a scare or two, but these teams’ goal is to be bowl eligible.

Tier 9: Shaky

Pittsburgh
Northwestern
Purdue
Washington State
Miami (OH)
Duke
Jacksonville State
Louisiana
Oregon State
Virginia
Illinois
Stanford
Western Kentucky
South Alabama
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest

These teams probably won’t make bowl games if they are in a power conference (there are some pretty good Go5 teams, but I’m mainly looking at the perspective of power programs). Some of these teams have bowl eligibility as an absolute ceiling, but they really need to play to the best of their ability.

Tier 10: Bad

Toledo
Bowling Green
Coastal Carolina
Old Dominion
Wyoming
Utah State
Eastern Michigan
North Texas
Northern Illinois
San Diego State
Rice
Army
Florida Atlantic
Arkansas State

These teams are pretty decent Go5 programs, but none o these teams could pose much of a threat to a good team. They may be able to hang for a quarter, but that’s it.

Tier 11: Cupcake

Hawaii
UAB
Marshall
Ohio
Tulsa
Western Michigan
Central Michigan
San Jose State
Georgia Southern
New Mexico
Troy
Buffalo
MTSU
Navy

These are Go5 teams that are just trying to compete for bowl eligibility. These are the classic “cupcake” games that power 5 teams schedule, and these teams don’t have any sort of chance competing for more than 30 seconds against a good team.

Tier 12: Trash

East Carolina
Nevada
Georgia State
Sam Houston
FIU
NMSU
Akron
Southern Miss

These teams are bad by Go5 standards and should miss a bowl game.

Tier 13: Dog Crap

UConn
Louisiana Tech
Ball State
Temple

Alright, dog crap might be a little harsh, but there little to nothing good going for any of these teams. They are really bad.

Tier 14: Incompetent

UMass
Kennesaw State
UTEP
Charlotte
Kent State
ULM

Once again, pretty harsh, but is a good word to describe them. The only reason I have any of these teams getting wins is because either they playa against another team in this tier, or they play an FCS school. Also, if you look at history, winless teams are less common then undefeated teams, and it would be statistically improbable to say that one of these teams would be winless.