12 Team Playoff Preview

I dive into the data to predict the 12 Team Playoff:

This is the year of the 12 team playoff, and nobody can really no for sure how well it will work out yet. Many debate how many teams from each conference will make the playoffs, and I did some research.

I looked back at what a 12 team playoff would have looked like the last 10 years, and I looked also, more specifically, at the last 5 years. I did use 2024 re-alignment, so Oklahoma will be counted as an SEC team instead of a Big 12 team for example, even though they technically haven’t played in the SEC yet. I did this because I want to see how much the committee respects the teams that are currently in their respective conferences.

Conference	Teams per Year	Teams per Year (Last 5)
ACC	1.5	1.0
Big Ten	3.7	3.6
Big 12	1.9	2.2
SEC	3.5	3.8
Group of 5	1.0	1.0
Notre Dame	0.4	0.4

The SEC and Big Ten are clearly above the rest. The SEC doing especially well in the last 5 years, while the Big Ten is the best overall.

There are some stats to consider though, as with any data set.

• The Big 12 had the most teams in 2014 with 4 teams (Baylor, TCU, Arizona, and Kansas State)
• The SEC only had two teams in 2015 and 2016 (Alabama and Oklahoma both times)
• The ACC had the most teams in 2015 with 4 teams (Clemson, Stanford, Florida State, and North Carolina
• The Big Ten would have filled half the bracket with 6 teams in 2016 (Washington, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and USC)
• The SEC has had the most teams in the playoffs the highest number of times (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023)
• The ACC has had the same amount of teams make it as the G5 in the last 5 years
• An average of 0.9 9-3 teams make the top 12 each year, so pretty much every team can only afford 2 losses unless the third is in a conference championship game, as the committee doesn’t normally punish teams for losing that game very much (look at 2022 TCU)

With all of these things considered, I will predict have two separate playoff predictions:

• My bracket that is seeded based on my rankings
• A bracket seeded based on the data

Ranked Bracket

1st Round

5 Alabama vs 12 Boise State

6 Georgia vs 11 Missouri

7 Oregon vs 10 LSU

8 Ole Miss vs 9 Notre Dame

Quarterfinals

1 Texas vs 8 Ole Miss

2 Ohio State vs 7 Oregon

3 Miami vs 6 Georgia

4 Utah vs 5 Alabama

Semifinals

1 Texas vs 5 Alabama

2 Ohio State vs 6 Georgia

Championship

1 Texas vs 2 Ohio State

Champion

1 Texas

Conference Breakdown

• SEC: 6 (Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, LSU, Missouri)
• Big Ten: 2 (Ohio State, Oregon)
• ACC: 1 (Miami)
• Big 12: 1 (Utah)
• Independent: 1 (Notre Dame)
• Mountain West: 1 (Boise State)

Data Bracket

1st Round

5 Alabama vs 12 Boise State

6 Georgia vs 11 Kansas State

7 Oregon vs 10 Michigan

8 Ole Miss vs 9 Notre Dame

Quarterfinals

1 Texas vs 8 Ole Miss

2 Ohio State vs 7 Oregon

3 Miami vs 6 Georgia

4 Utah vs 5 Alabama

Semifinals

1 Texas vs 5 Alabama

2 Ohio State vs 6 Georgia

Championship

1 Texas vs 2 Ohio State

Champion

1 Texas

Conference Breakdown

SEC: 4 (Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss)

Big Ten: 3 (Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan)

Big 12: 2 (Utah, Kansas State)

ACC: 1 (Miami)

Independent: 1 (Notre Dame)

Mountain West: 1 (Boise State)