College Football Top 25: Week 1

My official top 25 for week 1, and my breakdown of this year’s contenders:

1. Texas Longhorns 0-0: vs Colorado State
2. Ohio State Buckeyes 0-0: vs Akron
3. Alabama Crimson Tide 0-0: vs Western Kentucky
4. Georgia Bulldogs 0-0: vs 18 Clemson
5. Oregon Ducks 0-0: vs Idaho
6. Ole Miss Rebels 0-0: vs Furman
7. LSU Tigers 0-0: vs USC
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0-0: at Texas A&M
9. Missouri Tigers 0-0: vs Murray State
10. Michigan Wolverines 0-0: vs Fresno State
11. Tennessee Volunteers 0-0: vs Chattanooga
12. Oklahoma Sooners 0-0: vs Temple
13. Miami Hurricanes 0-0: at 24 Florida
14. Utah Utes 0-0: vs Southern Utah
15. Florida State Seminoles 0-0: at Georgia Tech, vs Boston College
16. Penn State Nittany Lions 0-0: at West Virginia
17. Kanas State Wildcats 0-0: vs UT Martin
18. Clemson Tigers 0-0: vs 4 Georgia
19. Kansas Jayhawks 0-0: vs Lindenwood
20. Boise State Broncos 0-0: at Georgia Southern
21. Kentucky Wildcats 0-0: vs Southern Miss
22. Oklahoma State Cowboys 0-0: vs South Dakota State
23. Auburn Tigers 0-0: vs Alabama A&M
24. Florida Gators 0-0: vs 13 Miami
25. Arizona Wildcats 0-0: vs New Mexico

Just Missed

• USC Trojans
• Texas A&M Aggies
• Louisville Cardinals
• NCST Wolfpack
• USF Bulls

Conference Comparison

SEC: 11 (1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 21, 23, 24)

Big 12: 5 (14, 17, 19, 22, 25)

Big Ten: 4 (2, 5, 10, 16)

ACC: 3 (13, 15, 18)

Independent: 1 (8)

Mountain West: 1 (20)

Playoff Preview

In the first year of the 12 team playoff, there are going to be many more opportunities for teams that don’t normally contend for the playoffs. It should be very interesting to see just how many teams will be in contention by the end of the season.

In the 4 team playoff era, there often wasn’t much debate about who should make the playoffs with few exceptions. Last year was probably the most controversial as Alabama made it in over Florida State, but I think the committee ultimately made the right the decision. There are only two years in particular where I think the committee made the wrong decision. 2020 and 2022.

In 2020, Ohio State made the playoffs despite only playing a handful of unimpressive games all season. They did beat Clemson in the semis which surprised me, but that game was an outlier for the Buckeyes as they got blown out the next week against Alabama. I would have personally included either Florida or Texas A&M. Florida played Bama better than anyone that year, and Texas A&M’s only loss that season was Bama despite a full SEC schedule.

In 2022, TCU made the playoffs despite losing in the Big 12 championship to Kansas State, having a poor strength of schedule, and consistently playing from behind against inferior competition. They beat Michigan in a crazy semifinal game, that once again seemed like a total fluke, as TCU was completely embarrased by Georgia in the championship. While I am an Alabama fan, I think Alabama would have been a better inclusion for an entertaining product. Their only two losses were on the last play of the game against two of the better teams in the country at Tennessee and LSU. Bama also had the best two players in college football (Bryce Young and Will Anderson Jr). The main reason in retrospect that makes Bama seem like the more appealing option, is that they dominated the same Kansas State team that beat TCU. Would Bama have won the championship? No. Honestly, if those playoffs were played over again, Ohio State would have probably won it all as they completely blew the end of the game against Georgia, but Bama would have put up a better fight in the championship.

While the committee isn’t perfect, a 12 team playoff will make any errors less impactful. Does the no. 10 team really have that much of a shot at winning the championship? Not really, so if they get the no. 10 team wrong, then who really cares?

With all of that said, I’ll break down the main contenders for the playoffs in 5 different categories. Championship Contenders, At-large Contenders, ACC/Big 12 Contenders, Darkhorse Contenders, and G5 Contenders.

Championship Contenders

Texas Longhorns

Schedule: vs CSU, at 10 Michigan, vs UTSA, vs ULM, vs MSST, vs 12 OU, vs 4 UGA, at Vandy, vs 24 UF, at Arkansas, vs 21 UK, at TAMU

Strength: Depth

Weakness: Schedule

Texas, my no. 1 team. They have one of the best rosters in football, and I think Steve Sarkisian is emerging as one of the best coaches in the country. Quinn Ewers is a legit Heisman contender, and he has great skills around him. I see no blatant holes on the roster. They don’t have as many All-Americans as teams like Ohio State, but they have consistent depth across the entire roster.

The only thing that would make me worry about Texas is their schedule. It isn’t the toughest in the country, but it is way tougher than Texas has ever had to deal with in the Big 12. They have had to face quality opponents in the past, but now that they must face quality on a week to week basis. The difference between being middle of the pack and great in the SEC will rely on how they can adjust to post-Big 12 life.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Schedule: vs Akron, vs WMU, vs Marshall, at MSU, vs Iowa, at 5 Oregon, vs NEB, at 16 PSU, vs Purdue, at NW, vs Indy, vs 10 Michigan

Strength: Defense

Weakness: QB

Ohio State has the most star-studded roster in football, especially on defense. All 11 of those guys are All-American caliber including S Caleb Downs, who might be the best defensive player in the country. Their DC, Jim Knowles, is probably the best DC in the country, and should be leading the best defense in the country.

The only spot on the roster that isn’t quite at the same level as the other contenders is QB. Will Howard is a good QB, but he isn’t a gamechanger. It will be hard to get through a 12 team playoff when you are at a disadvantage at the most important position on the field every round.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Schedule: vs WKU, vs USF, at WIS, vs 4 UGA, at Vandy, vs SC, at 11 TEN, vs 9 Mizzou, at 7 LSU, vs Mercer, at 12 OU, vs 23 AUB

Strength: O-Line

Weakness: Inexperienced Secondary

Alabama has a lot of good things going for them on both sides of the ball, but I’d say that the no. 1 group on the roster has to be the O-line. There’s a world were they could have 4 All-America lineman, at the very least 2 with Tyler Booker and Parker Brailsford. The unit should be able to pave the way for Bama’s exciting, young RBs, and give Milroe plenty of time in the pocket.

The weakness is definitely the inexperience in the secondary. They only return one starter from last year (Malachi Moore). Transfers Domani Jackson and Keon Sabb should be good as they adjust to the Bama system, but the other two DB spots are bigger question marks. The talent is there as always, but freshman aren’t always consistent right away.

Georgia Bulldogs

Schedule: vs 18 Clemson, vs TN Tech, at 21 UK, at 3 Bama, vs 23 AUB, vs MSST, at 1 TEX, vs 24 UF, at 6 Ole Miss, vs 11 TEN, vs UMass, vs GT

Strength: Front 7

Weakness: WR corps

Georgia has always been good up front, and they will be again this year. Mykel Williams and Smael Mondon are especially good. Georgia will have a great defense as always nder Kirby Smart.

The main weakness I see is their receiving corps. Whenever the team was without Ladd McConkey or Brock Browers last year, UGA struggled on offense. Now the Bulldogs don’t have either of them. The corps will be led by Dominic Lovett and RaRa Thomas (who was just arrested in a domestic violence case). Georgia probably has the worst receiver group out of any of the championship contenders.

Oregon Ducks

Schedule: vs Idaho, vs 20 BSU, at ORSU, at UCLA, vs MSU, vs 2 OSU, at Purdue, vs Illinois, at 10 Michigan, vs Maryland, at WIS, vs UW

Strength: Pass Attack

Weakness: Continuity

Oregon ha sthe best QB in college football with the arrival of Dillon Gabriel. His receivers are some of the best in country with Tez Johsnon and Evan Stewart both being All-American candidates in the preseason. The O-line is really good as well, and shoudl be able to give Gabriel plenty of time to throw to his playmakers.

My main problem with the Ducks is their reliance on the transfer portal. Their QB, top WR, and many players on defense are players from the portal. They are very good players, but we haven’t seen a champion be built by so many 1st year transfers, most teams are built on homegrown talent. We’ll see if they can mesh.

Ole Miss Rebels

Schedule: vs Furman, vs MTSU, at WF, vs GASO, vs 21 UK, at SC, at 7 LSU, vs 12 OU, at Arkansas, vs 4 UGA, at 24 UF, vs MSST

Strength: Offense

Weakness: Depth

I think Ole Miss is a really good blend of transfers, and homegrown talent, including talent that transferred to Oxford a couple years ago, and have developed at Ole Miss for a few years now. It is of my opinion that Lane Kiffin is the second best play caller in the country, only behind Sarkisian. His offense is loaded with studs, and Jaxson Dart might be the most underrated QB in the country. They bolstered the O-line in the transfer portal, and this offense should be among the best units in the country.

When you’re a team like Ole Miss, you don’t recruit super well, and you need to recruit well to get championship-level depth. The transfer portal has helped with that a little bit, but they don’t have the same talent throughout their roster as the other top contenders.

At-Large Contenders

• LSU Tigers
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish
• Missouri Tigers
• Michigan Wolverines
• Tennessee Volunteers
• Oklahoma Sooners

If LSU had a half-decent defense last season, they could have contended for the playoffs. They lost a lot of their best players, but their O-line is a top 5 unit in the country. I expect the defense to be much better as well.

Notre Dame will have an elite defense, but, as always, the offense needs to step up. We’ll see what QB Riley Leonard and their transfer WRs can do.

Missouri lost a lot of talent on defense, but they should still be a quality unit. The offense should be very good. WR Luther Burden should be one of the best players in the country and a top Heisman candidate. They also have a very easy schedule and could easily be looking at 10 wins this season.

Michigan should take a big step back from last season, but they still will have a very good defense. Whether they make the playoffs will rely on Alex Orji at QB.

Tennessee’s defense took a much needed step forward last season, and now their ceiling will be dictated on whether Nico is closer to being more of Hendon Hooker or a Joe Milton.

Oklahoma should have one of the SEC’s best defenses, and their skill positions look great on offense. I just worry about their O-Line and their brutal schedule.

ACC/Big 12 Contenders

• Miami Hurricanes
• Utah Utes
• Florida State Seminoles
• Kansas State Wildcats
• Clemson Tigers
• Kansas Jayhawks

Miami finally has elite talent at skill positions after attacking their needs in the transfer portal. They are the most talented team in the ACC, and now is there chance to make a run.

Utah has been among the Pac-12’s best for years, and now they have a chance to continue their dominance in the big 12. They should have a stout defense, and I’m curious to see how Cam Rising will do in his return.

Florida State was great last year, but they lost a lot of talent to the NFL. They have a lot of transfers coming in though, and we’ll see if Mike Norvell can cook up another ACC championship with a good yet new roster.

Kansas State has been good for a while, but haven’t really established themselves as a Big 12 powerhouse. Now is the time with Texas and Oklahoma gone. They have a promising young QB, and a great run game. The defense is one of the best in the conference, and they have a great coach. They just need to take the next step.

Clemson has the defense to win a championship, they just need the offense to be even half as good as the Deshaun/Trevor days. I still think Klubnik has potential to be good, but the receivers and run game have been lacking. If they get that fixed, they could be a scary team in the playoffs.

Kansas has been on a steady rise as a program, and now is their chance to go to the playoffs. They have the best QB in the conference, and should be able to put up 40 points on command. If the defense is decent, they could find themselves in the Big 12 championship.

Dark Horse Contenders

• Penn State Nittany Lions
• Kentucky Wildcats
• Oklahoma State Cowboys
• Auburn Tigers
• Arizona Wildcats
• USC Trojans

Penn State has been knocking on the door of great for years, but have just been good. They have the roster to make the playoffs, and an easy schedule, but they haven’t ever been quite able to put it all together. Maybe they will this year, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Kentucky has low-key dangerous team this year. If they can navigate a tough schedule and get 9-10 wins, they have a shot. The defense should be great as always, and they need QB Brock Vandagriff to live up to the hype.

Oklahoma State has almost every player coming back from last year. The only thing they lacked from that unit was consistency, most of that can be put on the turnovers. If they cut down on those and shore up some problems on defense, the Cowboys could contend for the Big 12 title.

Auburn has some talent now with Hugh Freeze in the building. They may still be a year or two away from contention, but don’t count them out. Auburn can come out of nowhere somtimes.

Arizona lost their coach in the offseason, but kept most of their main contributors from on the field. Their offense should be electric, and they have a shot at winning the Big 12 if they can overcome the coaching change.

USC should have a great offense because Lincoln Riley always has great offenses. They made inevitable switch at DC, and if their defense can be anything above average, they could be good. Their only problem outside of that though, is their schedule, which includes LSU and Notre Dame in non-conference.

G5 Contenders

• Boise State Broncos
• USF Bulls
• Tulane Green Wave
• Memphis Tigers
• Appalachian State Mountaineers
• Liberty Flames

I think Boise State is by far the best G5 team this year, and should make the playoffs, but the committee has made questionable decisions with the G5 in the past, so it is worth mentioning the others.

USF has a lot of talent coming back, and may have the best QB in the G5. They have a tough schedule though, and that could be their downfall.

Tulane has a new coach, but he may be just as good as the old one. They retained a lot of their talent and brought in some more with the new coach. They could potentially be even better than last year.

Memphis has a great offense, and a solid defense to go with it. They just need to get over the hump and win an AAC conference that is loaded with talent.

Liberty and App State aren’t quite as good as the other options, but they have very easy schedule and could end the season with very good records. Last year, the committee values record over the on field product in their rankings when it came to the G5 choice. if history repeats itself, these two teams may have the best G5 records.

Verdict

So who will make it? I think all the Championship contenders will, and Boise State is the obvious choice in the G5, so that leaves 5 more spots including the ACC and Big 12 champions.

My pick for the ACC is Miami. They have by far the best QB and overall offense out of the three. They have the weakest defense, but the offense should make up for it. They have the most talent, and it will show.

My pick for the Big 12 is Utah. One thing that Utah has that the others don’t, is a history of winning. Winners know how to win. Utah is used to winning conference championships. Kansas State won a few years ago, but it didn’t feel like a huge win, at least in the eyes of the committee. Kansas has been among the worst football programs in the country until the last couple years. Utah has been in this position before, and they will seize the opportunity to be the top dawgs in the conference.

That leaves three more teams. My picks will be LSU, Notre Dame, and Missouri. Each of them have something better than the rest. LSU has the best offense of the rest of the contenders. Notre Dame has the best defense. Missouri has the best schedule (blend of some tough tests to add the resume, yet not enough to rack up too many losses). That is a pretty big simplification, but Tennessee and Oklahoma especially struggle in the schedule department, while Michigan has the worst offense of the bunch.

Here would be me seeding:

1. Texas
2. Ohio State
3. Miami
4. Utah
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Oregon
8. Ole Miss
9. LSU
10. Notre Dame
11. Missouri
12. Boise State

1st Round

5 Alabama vs 12 Boise State 45-13

6 Georgia vs 11 Missouri 34-21

7 Oregon vs 10 Notre Dame 28-17

8 Ole Miss vs 9 LSU 38-31

Quarterfinals

1 Texas vs 8 Ole Miss 31-24

2 Ohio State vs 7 Oregon 33-27

3 Miami vs 6 Georgia 17-31

4 Utah vs 5 Alabama 14-35

Semifinals

1 Texas vs 5 Alabama 33-28

2 Ohio State vs 6 Georgia 23-16

Championship

1 Texas vs 2 Ohio State 24-20

I think Texas will win the championship this year. Texas is the most well-rounded team, and has a good coach to go along with it. It is extremely hard to poke holes in this great roster, and they will be the team to beat. Ohio State has a great roster too, but the QB play will be the difference.