This week has HUGE playoff implications and the results of these games could shape the rest of the season:
Locks
First and foremost, what are the odds looking like this week?
Iowa (-6.5) at UCLA is looking really good Friday night. Iowa has been lowkey pretty good this year, they’ve actually exceeded my expectations. The problem is, my expectations were way lower than everyone else, so they have been disappointing for most. UCLA has been somewhat of a heater as well, but Iowa has scored at least 40 points in 3 of their last 4 games, and has won by almost 30 points in all three of those contests. Give me the Hawkeyes to cover, and I actually really like over 44.5 in this game as well, as I think Iowa could do that all on their own.
Oregon (-23.5) vs Maryland looks really attractive as well. Oregon has been playing like a no. 1 team, and Maryland has been pretty underwhelming this year, even with a favorable schedule to this point. Oregon is as dominant as anyone right now, and they should win by at least 30.
Mississippi State (+24.5) at Tennessee is a really big number. MSST has been pretty bad this year, but it is worth noting that they played within that number against both Georgia and Texas A&M. Tennessee is really good, especially on defense, but the offense has not been able to move easily as of late. They have been playing close with everyone because of that, and while this will won’t necessarily put the Volunteers on upset alert, I don’t think they are capable of winning by more than 3 touchdowns.
Playoff Implications
There are several games this week that could be extremely consequential in the playoff race. Let’s start in the morning slate:
4 Miami at Georgia Tech
This is one of the last chances for the Canes to lose in the regular season assuming Haynes King plays at QB for the Jackets. Georgia Tech is a solid all-around team with a lot of fight, and Miami has been living on the edge lately. If Miami were to lose this game, it begs the question of whether or not they would win a tiebreaker with Clemson or Pitt to make the ACC championship. Is an 11-2 Miami good enough to make the playoffs if they were to lose to SMU in the ACC championship? I don’t know.
Florida at 5 Texas
This game comes with a huge asterisk. If DJ Lagway does not play for the Gators, then Texas will win easily, but if Lagway does play, then the Longhorns are in trouble. It is of my opinion that Florida would have beat Georgia if he would have played that whole game, and Florida is sneaky good with him in the lineup. If Texas were to lose this game, they would be a two loss team with a very poor resume and a make a break game against TAMU on rivalry weekend.
There are three games in the afternoon slate that have some big implications as well, and two of them have flown under the radar for most:
20 Colorado at Texas Tech
Texas Tech is a quality team, proven by their upset win over Iowa State last week. Colorado perhaps benefitted the most from that upset as well as the KSU upset as they are in position now to make a Big 12 championship with a chance to take on BYU for a spot in the playoffs. The opportunity has been served to them on a silver platter, and all they need to do now is win out, but if they lose to TTU, they would enter in an enormous two-conference loss club and would have to work their way through some tough tiebreakers for a spot in the championship. This is a must win game for the Buffs.
25 Army at North Texas
If Army wants any shot at the playoffs, they have to build a convincing enough resume to surpass Boise State in the rankings. That’s a very tall task, and North Texas is by far the best team they have played all season. If they don’t win this, they will still be in the AAC race, but it would mean they would have a very hard time surpassing Boise State, even if the Broncos dropped a game at some point.
3 Georgia at 16 Ole Miss
I think Ole Miss is an underrated team with the potential to beat anyone. UGA has been sloppy at best in every game this year outside the Clemson and Texas games. Last time they got off to a slow start against a quality team, they payed for it, and Ole Miss has the talent to take advantage. The only thing the Rebels need to do is prevent their own mistakes, which they have had trouble with in big SEC games under Lane Kiffin. If Ole Miss wins this, the entire playoff picture will be shaken up as the SEC would then have 6 teams who could possibly have legitimate claim to a spot in the playoff when it is all said and done.
Before I get to the evening game that will be the main event of the weekend, I’ll first look at the night game that not many outside of the state of Utah are talking about:
9 BYU at Utah
Anything can happen in this rivalry, and I know how much Utah wants to ruin BYU’s perfect season first hand living in Utah myself. While a loss here wouldn’t knock BYU out of the Big 12 Championship game, it makes that game a must win for BYU. The Cougars still have a shot at making it in at large if their only loss is in the Big 12 championship. The first time in a while that this game will mean a lot for BYU outside of bragging rights, and it should be an exciting game no matter which of these teams wins.
Alright, time for the main event. The true playoff eliminator game for both teams. The winner is most likely in, and the loser is most definitely out.
11 Alabama at 15 LSU
While this is probably the lowest combined ranking that these teams have had in a while going into the game, it will still be just as impactful. This is one of my favorite rivalries in all of college football, and this game won’t disappoint.
JacobErwin.com 