What teams from the G5 can go to the playoffs this year?
Last year, Boise State was clearly the best G5 team. Most years there is a little more nuance in the race for no. 1 amongst these 5 conferences, and I think this year will lean little more towards that nuance than last season.
There are 16 teams that I could see make the playoffs, but there is one clear favorite. I think it has been made pretty clear over the last few years that the American and Mountan West are much better than the other three conferences. The only chance that the Sun Belt, C-USA, and MAC have of being represented in the playoffs is if one team completely dominates their schedule and/or beating a respectable P4 team.
I will go through each contender and what they have to do to seperate themselves.
1. Boise State Broncos
Boise State is the best G5 team by a wide margin yet again this year. However, they aren’t as good as they were last year, so they have a better chance of slipping up against lesser opponents. They replace their matchup with Oregon (which I honestly think they should have won) with a game against Notre Dame. BSU has a much smaller chance of winning that game this year because they don’t have a big star like Jeanty anymore. They still have a shot, but it is unlikely. That gives them 1 loss. They should be favored in every other game this year, but there are several places where they could possibly slip up (at USF, at Air Force, vs UNLV, vs Colorado State).
The loss of Jeanty is huge, but they return a lot of production outside of that, and Boise State was more than just Jeanty last year. They were a very good team. They are very good in the trenches, and they have talent everywhere. Boise State’s ceiling really relies on Maddux Madsen. If he can take the next step and become an elite college QB, Boise State could possibly be even better than last year. A great QB is more impactful than an elite RB. I think Boise State is the best G5 team, and will make the playoffs for a 2nd year in a row.
Projected Record: 12-1
2. UTSA Roadrunners
UTSA has a lot of returning production, and one of the best coaches in the G5. They avoid playing Memphis and Navy, they get Army and Tulane at home, and they have a chance to beat one of the Mountain West’s best teams in Colorado State. Their schedule is difficult enough that they have a chance to prove themselves while also not being overwhelming. I really don’t think they have a shot at beating Texas A&M, but they should be favored in 9-11 games.
UTSA is the best team in the American, but if they want a chance at competing with Bosie State, they must beat Colorado State, keep it somewhat respectable with Texas A&M (at least just as good as what Boise State does with Notre Dame), and they can have at most 1 (maybe 2 if Bosie State has a down year) conference losses. There is small margin for error, but it shouldn’t be impossible for UTSA to make a run here, especially if Boise State loses in the Mountain West Championship.
Projected Record: 11-2
3. Tulane Green Wave
I think Tulane, USF, and Memphis are about equal in quality, but Tulane has more oppurtunity in their schedule to prove themselves over Boise State, who will have a much better record. I don’t expect them to win at Ole Miss, but they have a legitamate shot at beating two P4 opponents as they get Northwestern and Duke at home. They must go on the road at UTSA and Memphis which will be tough, and just making the conference championship will be a struggle.
They have the chance to prove themselves outside of conference play, which many others don’t have. While they aren’t as good as Boise State or UTSA, they could build an impressive resume.
Projected Record: 8-4
4. Memphis Tigers
Memphis is a pretty popular pick to make the playoffs, but I don’t see them being much better than last year, which obviously wasn’t close to good enough to make it. They have a decent schedule. A win over Arkansas is obtainable and would be a great resume builder. The conference schedule is also manageable as they get USF, Tulane, and Navy at home.
They should be good as always, I just don’t know if they can take the next step into being a contender, especially after losing their career passing leader.
Projected Record: 9-3
5. USF Bulls
USF was extremely dissapointing last year. I thought they would be a contender in the American last year, but instead went 7-6 and finshed no. 6 in the conference. I expect them to be much improved this year as they will hopefully have better injury luck. They are very experienced and Byrum Brown is one of the best QBs in the country.
Their schedule in the non-conference is brutal. They must play Boise State, Florida, and Miami in the 1st 3 weeks. That Boise State game could be the most consequencial game for the entire conference. If USF beats BSU, that would propel the American ahead of the Mountain West.
The schedule is rough, but they could make a run with some upsets.
Projected Record: 8-5
T-6. San Jose State, UNLV, and Colorado State
These are my main favorites to face Boise State in the Conference Championship, and if they manage to pull off a big upset, they would sky rocket in the CFP rankings. I’m still not sure if they would be able to jump high enough to pass the top American team though, because I think these teams are definitely worse than most of the top American teams. (I am very curious to see what Dan Mullen can do with UNLV though).
9. Liberty Flames
With Rich Rodriguez out of the way, Libery is the best team in the C-USA by far. WKU is really the only team that even has a shot of beating them in the C-USA championship. They should be favored in all 12 of their games this season, and they probably the best shot of going undefeated of anyone in the country. I’m gonna be honest though, Liberty was extremely dissapointing last season, and kind of left a bad taste in my mouth. While James Madison is literally the only team on their schedule with any sort of substance, I feel like they just won’t be consistent enough to go undefeated. I will say, since the committee seems to love teams with good records, I wouldn’t be surprised if they put a 13-0 Liberty over a 12-1 Boise State or 11-2 UTSA, so they still have a shot.
Projected Record: 11-2
10. Georgia Southern Eagles
I really like what Clay Helton is building here, and I think they will finally be able to get over the hump this year and win the Sun Belt, but I don’t think they will be good enough to dominate the conference. Louisiana, James Madison, Southern Miss, and Texas State are all almost just as good as GASO, so getting out of this schedule with more than 10 wins would be extremely difficult. If they get some luck and get out of a few close games, I could see them being a darkhorse contender.
Projected Record: 10-3
T-11 Toledo and Buffalo
These teams seem like they are clearly the two best in the MAC as the return much more production than the rest as the MAC is repeatedly massacred by the portal year after year. They also have two of the easiest non-conference schedules in the conference as MAC teams normally schedule extremely diffcult in comparison to other G5 conferences. Toledo plays at Kentucky and at home vs Western Kentucky, which are both winnable resume builders. Buffalo has it even easier with a road trip to Minnesota being the only game of substance here. I would put the Golden Gophers on upset alert in week 1. Both teams could have great records, but the MAC will be weaker than usual this year, and they will most likely be overshadowed by whoever wins the MW, AAC, and SBC.
T-13. Air Force, Army, and Navy
All three of these teams will be quite good this year, and honestly seem extremely evenly matched, so it should be exciting to see who wins the Commander In Chief Trophy. Army and Navy have pretty favorable conference schedules as well, which could help them make their conference championship games. Air Force has a little bit of a tougher path though as they must play Boise State at home and then SJSU and UNLV on the road. It may be a longshot, but I think any 3 of these teams could do it under the right circumstances.
Group of 5 Top 25
- Boise State
- UTSA
- USF
- Tulane
- Memphis
- San Jose State
- UNLV
- Georgia Southern
- Toledo
- Liberty
- Louisiana
- Colorado State
- Air Force
- Army
- Navy
- James Madison
- Buffalo
- Southern Miss
- Western Kentucky
- Texas State
- Coastal Carolina
- East Carolina
- North Texas
- Fresno State
- San Diego State
I honestly think the G5 should just do their own playoffs because a team from these conferences will never even have a sliver of chance of winning the championship in this format, so here’s what a G5 playoff would look like with each conference getting an automatic bid:
1 Boise State
2 UTSA
3 USF
4 Tulane
5 Memphis vs 12 Colorado State
6 San Jose State vs 11 Louisiana
7 UNLV vs 10 Liberty
8 Georgia Southern vs 9 Toledo
JacobErwin.com 