The Playoff Picture: Week 9

I think this week cleared things up a little bit, so I decided to pick every game remaining in the season:

Notre Dame got the win they needed against USC. This was their only shot at a quality win, and they got it. USC isn’t completely out of the playoff race, but things get much more difficult as they can only afford one more loss at most. Nebraska lost which effectively eliminated them. The margin for error just shrunk for Texas Tech and Miami as they both put up underwhelming performances after looking unstoppable for so long. Georgia is now looking exteremly comfortable and Ole Miss’ path has become much more narrow. Vanderbilt and Missouri stayed alive, and A&M is still undefeated.

The SEC is going to be a blood bath for the rest of the year as contenders play contenders every week from here on out. The Big Ten’s top 3 all seem like locks, but the conference may struggle to find a 4th team to crash the party.

The chance for their to be an at large in either the ACC or Big 12 has increased dramatically as Texas Tech and Miami are apparently mortal.

So, who are the contenders?

I’ll split them into 4 tiers. Locks, Feeling Good, Bubble, and Dark Horse

Locks

Ohio State
Indiana
Oregon

Just goes to show how top heavy the Big Ten is, huh? This isn’t to say that these teams are anything but great, however, these teams could sleep walk through the rest of the year and win every game by at least 30. There are only a few traps I can find, but ultimately even losses in those spots wouldn’t eliminate them. Ohio State has to play at Michigan, and we all know how they’ve struggled against the Wolverines lately. Oregon must play USC and Washington. These are both losable games, but I would be shocked if they lost both of them.

Feeling Good

Alabama
Georgia
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
USF

Alabama has several difficult games left, but they should be able to win out. They get LSU and Oklahoma at home, and Auburn in Jordan Hare will be tough, but its nothing they haven’t dealt with before.

Georgia’s schedule is looks easy on the surface, but they could drop a game if they aren’t careful. Florida, MSST, Texas, and Georgia Tech could all be tricky, especially Tech and Texas, but luckily MSST is their only true road game left.

Texas A&M really lucked out. This whole year, they don’t have to play any of the top 5 teams in the conference and only 1 of the top 8 (Missouri). Missouri and Texas (and maybe LSU) are losable game, but to think they could be eliminated from what is a relatively light schedule is unlikely. Possible, but likely,

Notre Dame’s schedule is laughably easy from here on out, and Pittsburgh is the only team left with any sort of shot at upsetting them.

USF seems like they are far and away the best G5 team, and they have already blwon out the MW’s best team (Boise State), so there won’t be any debate as long as they finish the deal and win the American.

Bubble

Ole Miss
Oklahoma
Miami
Missouri
Vanderbilt
Texas Tech
Tennessee
Georgia Tech

All of these teams have a pretty small margin for error going forward, and the schedule isn’t neccesarily super easy. 10-2 should be the goal for all of the SEC teams in this group, and depending on how everything shakes up, 9-3 might be good enough because teh strength of schedule would be so good.

Georgia Tech and Miami have really easy schedules ahead of them and if they can each finish 11-2 after the ACC championship, they might both make the playoffs.

I still feel really confident about TTU winning out, they just have to win in the Big 12 championship because they’re SOS might not be good enough for them to make it as an at large.

Dark Horse

BYU
USC
Michigan
Texas
Louisville
Cincinnati
Utah
Arizona State

The ACC and Big 12 teams in this group all have a really good shot at making their conference championship, and if they win that, they should make the playoffs.

Louisville is especially interesting because their schedule is extremely easy going forward and they could easily be 11-1 (with their only loss coming in OT to a good UVA team) going into the ACC championship. The problem for Louisville is if they just slip up once, they will be 10-2, miss the ACC championship and have to rely on an insane amount of chaos to make it in.

USC and Michigan have decent oppurtunities to get huge wins against Oregon and Ohio State repsectively. If they win those, they’re probably in, if they lose, they aren’t neccesarily out, but they would need a lot of SEC teams to lose.

Texas is interesting. They already have a big win against Oklahoma to hang their hat on, and they have oppurtunities to rack up some more huge wins against Georgia, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt. Unfortunately for them, those games are also vey losable, and their offense is just so bad. A 9-3 Texas could definitely make it in, but that might be a longshot to say they only lose one more game.

Projected Top 25

I looked at every game remaining and picked every one (in the P4). I threw in some upsets to dial up the chaos because there is chaos every year. So here is how I think the committee will rank top 25 teams when it is all said and done:

Ohio State 13-0*
Alabama 12-1*
Indiana 12-1**
Georgia 11-2**
Oregon 11-1
Texas Tech 12-1*
Texas A&M 10-2
Ole Miss 10-2
Georgia Tech 11-2*
Miami 11-2**
Notre Dame 10-2
USF 12-1*
Oklahoma 9-3
USC 9-3
Tennessee 9-3
Missouri 9-3
Louisville 10-2
Vanderbilt 9-3
Michigan 9-3
BYU 10-3**
Texas 8-4
Utah 9-3
Arizona State 9-3
Illinois 9-3
Boise State 11-2*

*Conference Champion

**Conference Runner-up

Playoff Prediction

Seeding

1 Ohio State

2 Alabama

3 Indiana

4 Georgia

5 Oregon

6 Texas Tech

7 Texas A&M

8 Ole Miss

9 Georgia Tech

10 Miami

11 Notre Dame

12 Miami

Oklahoma

USC

Tennessee

Missouri

A 9-3 Oklahoma would be hard to deny as I have them finishing with wins over 15, 16, and 19, while Notre Dame’s top wins are over 14 and 25. Oklahoma’s non ranked wins would be better as well as LSU would be a better win than pretty much anything Notre Dame would have. With all that being said, I believe the committee will put in Notre Dame using 4 things as justficication. 1st, and the only one that really matters to them, record. 2nd USC is technically hgher ranked than any of the teams OU has beaten (I think they will rank USC this high for this justification), 3rd, they have 10 straight wins and are really hot right now. 4th, their only losses were by a combined 4 points against playoff teams before ND got their defense and running game locked in. Ultimately, I think the committee will end up making the wrong decision, but I can see where they are coming from on the last point. It probably won’t end up mattering anyways because I don’t see either team making a run at the championship.

Playoff Prediction (Winners in Bold)

1st Round

5 Oregon vs 12 USF

6 Texas Tech vs 11 Notre Dame

7 Texas A&M vs 10 Miami

8 Ole Miss vs 9 Georgia Tech

Quarterfinals

1 Ohio State vs 8 Ole Miss

2 Alabama vs 7 Texas A&M

3 Indiana vs 6 Texas Tech

4 Georgia vs 5 Oregon

Semifinals

1 Ohio State vs 5 Oregon

2 Alabama vs 3 Indiana

Championship

1 Ohio State vs 2 Alabama