With two weeks of the regular season left, who is still alive in the playoff picture?
Locks
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Georgia
- Ole Miss
- Texas Tech
Ohio State does still have to play Michigan, but it doesn’t matter if they lose. There is no chance that Purdue beats Indiana, and even if they did, it wouldn’t be enough to knock them out. Texas A&M could very well lose to Texas, but that wouldn’t nock them out. I doubt Georgia Tech could beat Georgia, but even if they did, I bet Georgia would hold on because of their impressive resume. Ole Miss would stay in if the lost in teh Egg Bowl, but they are much better than State, so they should be able to win easily. Texas Tech has WVU left, and they aren’t very good. Even if TTU loses in the Big 12 Championship to BYU, they will still probably hang on because they have some good wins.
If any of these teams some how miss the playoffs, it would be one of the biggest late season collapses of all time.
Win and You’re In
- Oklahoma
- Alabama
- Oregon
- BYU
- Georgia Tech
- Virginia
- Michigan
Oklahoma has Missouri and LSU remaining. Neither of these games are gimmes, and Missouri could be especially challenging. Lucky for OU, Mizzou is pretty bad against Top 10 teams, so they should be fine.
Alabama has Eastern Illinois and Auburn remaining. Both of those teams are terrible, but it is hard to trust Bama going to Jordan-Hare with everything on the line. Auburn will be extremely motivated, and they have areally good defense just like OU. Bama should be fine, but stranger things have happened in the Iron Bowl.
Oregon has two very losable games remaining. USC and Washington If they lose just one of these games, I don’t know if they will have the resume to make it into the playoffs as a 10-2 team, and they would definitely need some help.
BYU just has to beat Cincinnati and UCF to make it to the Big 12 Championship. Not hard. The hard part is beating Texas Tech, who embarrassed them last week. BYU seems more focused now, and this time the game will be in a neutral site, but I don’t think they’ll be able to win. There still may be hope to make it in at large if they get some help ahead of them and keep the loss in the rematch respectable, but it is not likely.
Georgia Tech and Virginia are at the top of the ACC right now, and all they have to do is win out in conference play. They will probably play against each other in the ACC Championship, and whoever wins that is in, whoever loses is out. Simple.
Okay, so Michigan isn’t very good. I honestly think they are lucky to be 8-2, and there best win is either against Nebraska or Washington. There is one thing they have going for them. They own Ohio State. If I am not mistaken, a win over Maryland and Ohio State would put the Wolverines in the Big Ten Championship. A 10-2 Michigan with a win over Ohio State would sky rocket up in the rankings, and make the playoffs. They just have win, which is extremely unlikely.
In as Long as Nothing Crazy Happens
- Notre Dame
Notre Dame should be in. They have Syracuse and Stanford left. Easy. They are already in the top 10. Great. Unfortunately for them, I believe Alabama will remain ranked ahead of them, so if there were to be a bid stealer, Notre Dame would be the first team out. If BYU were to win out and get the auto bid, Notre Dame would be in real trouble if nobody loses ahead of them. They are pretty much locked in, but BYU could mess everything up.
Need Help
- Utah
- Vanderbilt
- Miami
- USC
Utah will probably move up to no. 12 this week, and they probably have multiple paths to making it to the playoffs. If BYU were to choke down the stretch, the Utes would have a shot of playing in the Big 12 Championship, and they could pay their way in that way. They could also hope for chaos. They would probably need two or even three of these things to happen: a BYU loss, Oregon loss, Oklahoma loss, or Alabama loss. All possible, but not likely that enough of them will happen. It also doesn’t help that Utah does not have any wins over highly ranked opponents.
Vanderbilt has Kentucky and Tennessee left. They should beat UK easy, but Tennessee is a toss up for me. If they do manage to take out Tennessee, they will be a 10-2 SEC team with those losses being in close games against Alabama and Texas. Their wins over Missouri and Tennessee would be pretty good, but I’m not sure how the committee would interpret those wins if both of those teams are 8-4 and out of the playoffs. Even if they do beat Tennessee, they will probably need 2 or 3 of BYU, Oregon, Oklahoma, or Alabama to lose. They might even need Utah to lose too, but the Tennessee win might be able to propel them ahead of the Utes.
Miami ahould win their last two games, and I think they are the best team in the ACC. Unfortunately, they don’t really have a path to the championship game, so they need to get in at large. The win over Notre Dame is huge, but they need Vandy, BYU, and Utah to lose for sure. They might need Oregon to lose twice, but then USC could possibly pass them. An Oklahoma or Alabama loss might be necessary as well. There is still a chance, but they need a lot chaos.
You may think that winning out would be enough for USC. A win over Oregon would be big for their resume, and they would be 10-2. I’m just not sure if that would propel them into the Top 10. Notre Dame would stay ahead of them (because they beat USC), and they would probably move up to no. 9. Then there would have to be a debate between probably a 10-2 USC, 11-2 BYU who just lost in the Big 12 Championship, a 10-2 Utah, a 10-2 Miami, and possibly a 10-2 Vanderbilt. I don’t know if they would be able to pass all of those teams, especially since BYU and Miami would have the highest ranked wins out of all of them. They would defenitely have a shot of making it, a pretty good one at that, but they would need some teams to lose ahead of them to be comfortable.
Prediction
Personally, I don’t think any of the chaos is going to happen. I have all of the top 10 winning out, and it would then just be a matter of seeding as the committee sees fit.
1st Round
5 Texas Tech vs 12 North Texas
6 Ole Miss vs 11 Virginia
7 Oklahoma vs 10 Notre Dame
8 Alabama vs 9 Oregon
Quarterfinals
1 Ohio State vs 8 Alabama
2 Texas A&M vs 10 Notre Dame
3 Indiana vs 6 Ole Miss
4 Georgia vs 5 Texas Tech
Semifinals
4 Georgia vs 8 Alabama
2 Texas A&M vs 6 Ole Miss
Championship
4 Georgia vs 6 Ole Miss
Champion
Georgia
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