My 2025 CFP Bracket:
1st Round
9 Alabama (-1.5) at 11 Oklahoma
As an Alabama fan, we need to win this. We should have beat Oklahoma in the regular season matchup, but uncharacteristic turnovers killed us. I’ll give Oklahoma credit for forcing the turnovers, those plays were not flukes, it was a result of Oklahoma confusing Ty Simpson and getting relentless pressure. With that being said, it is a statistical outlier. Alabama has been really good this season at taking care of the football, and they suddenly forgot how to not give the ball up when they played OU.
Both of these teams have great defenses. I can probably say the same for pretty much every team in the playoff field. Neither team can run the ball, though if Jam Miller comes back I would give the edge to Alabama. Alabama has also been much more productive than Oklahoma through the air, but Ty Simpson hasn’t been playing great recently. Alabama probably has the better secondary, but Oklahoma has a much better pass rush.
This game could end 3-0, but someone has to win. Alabama will get the W for a couple reasons. Oklahoma will not be able to move the ball at all and won’t get the shortfields they were gifted last time. Alabama’s offense and defense will play better with several injured players coming back. It is also very hard to beat the same team twice in one year when it is a top 10 team like Alabama.
Alabama wins 14-7
15 Miami at 5 Texas A&M (-3)
This is the game I am probablt most split on. Both teams have really good ground games and QBs that are inconsistent. They have really good pass rushed, and solid defenses all around. Oh, and both teams beat Notre Dame.
With pretty much everything equal, I look to the QBs. The one thing that I have always known about Carson Beck is that he is terrible against good pass rushes… A&M is 1st in the FBS in sacks. Carson Beck is going to be uncomfortable all game, and he will turn the ball over multiple times as Texas A&M gets the win.
Texas A&M wins 27-20
22 Tulane at 6 Ole Miss (-17.5)
Tulane doesn’t have a shot. Even with the revenge factor and no Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss will just be too much. Tulane is not a great team, and it would have been way more interesting to see North Texas in this spot in my opinion.
Ole Miss wins 45-17
James Madison at 8 Oregon (-21.5)
Much of the same for this game. The only thing that I think gives James Madison more of a shot is the fact that Oregon’s offenese isn’t quite as good as Ole Miss’, so they won’t be able to get out to as big of a lead in the 1st half, so turnovers will be extremely valuable.
Oregon wins 35-10
Quarterfinals
Cotton Bowl
5 Texas A&M vs 3 Ohio State
Texas A&M had probably the best year they have ever had, at least in the 21st century, but that will come to an end in the Cotton Bowl. Ohio State’s defense will completely shut A&M down, and I don’t think the Aggie defense will be able to force Ohio State to become one dimensional (which I believe is the key to beating OSU). One thing that makes this interesting though is that this game will be played in Dallas. I expect A&M to have this crowd 70-30, but that won’t be enough to put them over the top.
Ohio State wins 20-10
Orange Bowl
8 Oregon vs 4 Texas Tech
I think Oregon is a fraud. They are ranked 5, and yet their offense has been extremely underwhelming. Some of that has been because of injury, but they just can’t move the ball like most of the other playoff teams. Texas Tech has a better offense, hands down. This will be a defensive struggle for sure, but Texas Tech will be able to take advantage of some short fields and get the win.
Texas Tech wins 24-17
Rose Bowl
9 Alabama vs 1 Indiana
It pains me to say it, but this is where Alabama’s run ends. Alabama will barely get out of Norman with a win, so I doubt they’ll be able to ramp it up here against a team that executes at a much higher level. I’m not saying it is impossible for the Tide, especially because of their superior talent and stout defense, but it won’t be enough to take down Indiana and Fernando Mendoza.
Indiana wins 23-14
Sugar Bowl
6 Ole Miss vs 2 Georgia
Georgia won this the first time, and they have been playing much better since that game. Oh, and Ole Miss doesn’t have Lane Kiffin. Once again, Ole Miss has a chance. It is hard to imagine their defense being as bad as it was the first time around, but Georgia’s defense will play much better as well. This will be Pete Golding’s first real test. This is winnable, but they need to avoid mistakes by winning both the turnover and penalty battles.
Georgia wins 35-21
Semifinals
Fiesta Bowl
3 Ohio State vs 2 Georgia
While this seems like it should be an instant classic on paper, I actually think Georgia might be able to win this one convincingly. Ohio State’s offense is not impressive despite their great talent, and teams like Indiana, Texas, Washington, and Michigan were able to stop them comfortably. Georgia has better talent than all four of those teams. Georgia has been playing so well over the last few weeks, I just can’t see them falling short of a championship berth. Ohio State has been very good, but it seems like they don’t have the championship mentality tha Georgia has.
Georgia wins 21-10
Peach Bowl
4 Texas Tech vs 1 Indiana
Indiana has been playing like one of the best teams in college football, but this matchup really leans in favor of Texas Tech. Indiana’s offens falls apart when they can’t run effectively, and when Mendoza is consistently pressured. Texas Tech 1st in the country in run defense (by far) and 4th in total sacks. Now, it is worth noting that Indiana is 3rd in rush defense and tied with TTU in sacks, but I still think TTU’s defense is more dynamic. These two teams are very close, but I think Texas Tech will get the upset.
Texas Tech wins 27-24
National Championship
4 Texas Tech vs 2 Georgia
This is where the Texas Tech All-star team is finally defeated. As I have said before, Georgia is playing better than anyone right now, and it would take a near perfect performance to take them down. I don’t think Texas Tech can do that.
Georgia wins 33-21
JacobErwin.com 