My picks for the 2026 playoffs:
Wildcard
Rams (-10.5) at Panthers
This should be the easiest game to pick. The Rams will be getting Davante Adams back, and the NFL’s best offense will be fully intact. The Panthers have been a nice surprise this year, but they don’t have the talent to win a playoff game. The Rams outclass them at every single position.
Rams win 35-14
Packers (-1.5) at Bears
This game is one of 3 50/50 toss ups in the wildcard round, but I have to go with the Packers in this one. The Packers typically play very well in the playoffs, and this is Caleb Williams’ first playoff start. The Packers super bowl hopes died when Micah Parsons got injured, but they can still get past the first weekend. They outplayed the Bears in the regular season (though they lost the second game in OT) and they should get the win here.
Packers win 33-27
Bills at Jaguars (-1.5)
This is the best matchup of the 1st round. The Jaguars were the better team in the regular season. Hands down. Trevor Lawrence is playing at an extremely high level, and he already has a playoff win under his belt. I still gotta go with the Bills though. If you look at the stats, the Bills are better in most categories (though Jacksonville is much better at rush defense) and they have Josh Allen. The Bills are the only team in the AFC that has a truly elite QB with playoff experience. Josh Allen is the difference.
Bills win 27-23
49ers at Eagles (-6)
This is another really good matchup, and I am surprised the point spread is lopsided as it is. These teams are kind of similar in a way. They both have had a lot of success in last several years, and both are only good on one side of the ball while the other side is uncharacteristically bad. The Niners have a great offense and bad defense. The Eagles have a good defense and a terrible offense. The offense has been so imcompetent, that I just don’t see them winning a playoff game. Kyle Shannahan is a great coach. Nick Sirianni is good coach. The Niners coaching advantage and their ability to score will be the difference despite Philadelphia having homefield.
49ers win 21-16
Chargers at Patriots (-3.5)
I am very confident that the Patriots will win this. The Chargers health problems will finally catch up to them. New England will dominate at the line of scrimmage, and Los Angeles will never be able to build momentum. Also, Justin Herbert is notoriously terrible in the playoffs. I think he will be better this time, but his performance can’t patch this sinking ship.
Patriots win 31-17
Texans (-3) at Steelers
The Texans are the hottest team in football right now, and their defense is truly elite. The Steelers have been good, as Aaron Rodgers is the best QB they have had in years, but he is gonna get the living crap beat out of him by Will Anderson and friends.
Texans win 20-10
Divisional
Packers at Seahawks
The Packers don’t have the man power to beat Seattle. I trust Jordan Love more than Sam Darnold, but the Seahawks have an elite defense, and Green Bay’s offense has been surprisingly average. They just won’t be able to score enough to break this game open and really challenge the steamroller that Seattle has been this season.
Seahawks win 23-10
Bills at Broncos
The Broncos are overrated. They have a great defense, which will keep them in every game they play, but their offense lacks the it factor that so many other teams have at this point in the season. Bo Nix is the worst QB in the AFC side of the bracket, and Josh Allen is the best. Denver has a path to win the Super Bowl. Have a dominant defense and get the most out of Bo Nix. The Bills are relying on Josh Allen to play like superman, and I wouldn’t count on James Cook putting up big numbers since Denver only gives up 91 rush yards per game (second in the NFL). This will be a close defensive game, but the QB gap is too large to overcome here.
Bills win 20-16
Texans at Patriots
The Texans defense is so amazing, and I want to see them advance, but New England is too good all around. The Texans offense has been extremely underwhelmng, and it just isn’t good enough to beat a complete team like the Patriots. The Patriots are in the top 10 in almost every stat category you can think of, and Drake Maye is going to be the MVP runner up at QB. I like the Texans, but they really need some more weapons if they want to beat the top contenders.
Patriots win 24-17
49ers at Rams
The Niners have been able to navigate injury problems all year, but when you play an elite squad like the Rams, you really need to be at full strength. These two teams have gone at it almost every year it seems like, but Sean McVay and the Rams will get the win here. This may be the most entertaining game of the round, as both offenses should be able to put up some points, but in the end, the Rams should be able to create a lot more negative plays defensively, and that’s what will be the difference.
Rams win 38-31
Conference Championship
Bills at Patriots
This was one of the best matchups of the regular season, and this game should be an instant classic. Two great QBs with really good defenses and running backs, but there is one glaring difference between the two. Rush defense. The Bills have given up 136 rushing yards per game, and the Patriots themselves have had a lot of success running against the Bills. If they can stay committed to the run, it will be too much for Buffalo to handle. While also having home field advantage, the Patriots will have a slight edge and get the win, cutting Josh Allen’s playoff hopes short yet again.
Patriots win 33-31
Rams at Seahawks
If the Patriots and Bills weren’t the best regular season matchup of the season, then it was this one. The Rams have an elite offense and the Seahawks have an elite defense. The Rams have Puka Nacua, the Seahaws have Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks have home field advantage… but the Rams have Matthew Stafford. Stafford will win MVP and the Seahawks just don’t have a guy like that. Choking when it matters most is Sam Darnold’s favorite past time, and he is going to choke again. This game should also be a classic, and the Rams will come out on top.
Rams win 31-29
Super Bowl
Rams vs Patriots
We’ve seen this mathup before. These two teams have been playing like the two best teams all year in my opinion, despite neither getting the 1 seed. Both teams are really good all around and have good coaches. The Patriots have a better defense. The Rams have a better offense. The main big difference to me, is that the Rams have been here before. They won a super bowl a few years ago, and Matthew Stafford wants another ring before he’s done. This is Drake Maye’s first rodeo. I think Stafford will be the ultimate advantage and Puka Nacua will have an alltime super bowl performance at WR. But seriously, I just want a better Super Bowl than last year.
Rams win 34-27
Power Rankings
- Los Angels Rams
- Seattle Seahawks
- New England Patriots
- Buffalo Bills
- Houston Texans
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Denver Broncos
- San Francisco 49ers
- Green Bay Packers
- Chicago Bears
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Carolina Panthers
JacobErwin.com 