My bracket for 2026 and if the seeding were up to me:
East
The East region might end up being the most fun to watch. In the first round, you have probably the best 6 vs 11 matchup with Louisville and USF and possibly the best 7 vs 10 matchup with UCLA and UCF. Fast forward to the Round of 32, and you have possible matchups of UConn vs UCLA, Kansas vs St John’s, and Michigan State vs Louisville. Those are all must see TV.
The way I see it, any of the top 5 seeds could go to the Final 4. Louisville and UCLA are really good 6 and 7 seeds, but the top 5 are so good that I don’t think either will be able to get it done. If you insist on including a 6+ seed in the Final 4, these are probably your best options (except for maybe Tennessee in the Midwest). Statistically, at least one double digit seed should make the Sweet 16 every year, and this region is probably one of the most likely to have one of those teams. USF and UCF are good candidates for that.
1st Round
1 Duke vs 16 Sienna
Duke will obviously win this. A 16 seed has only ever won twice in the history of the tournament.
8 Ohio State vs 9 TCU
8 v 9 games are always tough to pick. Both of these teams are pretty good. The main separator I see between these two teams is their Q1 records. TCU is 6-7 in Q1 games (including wins over Florida, Iowa State, and Texas Tech) while Ohio State is just 4-11 (their best wins are against Purdue and Wisconsin). TCU should win this in a close one.
5 St John’s vs 12 Northern Iowa
At least one 12 seed wins pretty much every year, but I don’t think Northern Iowa will be that team. St John’s is playing their best basketball right now, and I don’t expect them to lose this early.
4 Kansas vs 13 California Baptist
Usually one 13 seed wins every year, but I don’t think CBU is quite up to the task of beating a team loaded with talent like Kansas. Kansas should win this one easily.
6 Louisville vs 11 USF
I really like both of these teams. Louisville has 8 Q1 games, which is really good for a 6 seed. They have some really good talent too. USF has 3 Q1 games, which is really good for a mid-major. One big difference between these two teams is momentum. USF hasn’t lost a game since January, and Louisville has lost 3 of their last 6 and had a disappointing showing in the ACC tournament. I’ll take USF to get the upset.
3 Michigan State vs 14 North Dakota State
Michigan State probably should have gotten 2 seed in all honesty. North Dakota State is a decent squad, but I don’t see them getting upset here. Michigan State should win big.
7 UCLA vs 10 UCF
This one of my favorite 7 vs 10 matchups of the year, as I think both of these teams have a good chance of advancing to the Sweet 16. Both of these teams have really good wins (UCLA beat Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State. UCF beat Kansas, Texas Tech, and BYU). UCLA is also hot coming off a deep Big Ten tournament run. I could really go either way, but I am leaning UCLA here.
2 UConn vs 15 Furman
While 15 seeds have done relatively well in recent history, it is bracket suicide to actually pick one in your bracket. UConn is probably the most likely to lose in the first round though as they already have a Q3 loss this season, but UConn should win easily despite being the worst of the 2 seeds.
Round of 32
1 Duke vs 9 TCU
TCU has shown that they can play with the big boys as they do have wins over a 1 seed and a 2 seed, but Duke is just too good. Duke has been one of the best teams all year, and they probably have the most talented roster in the country.
4 Kansas vs 5 St John’s
This should be one of the best games of the entire round. Both of these teams have Final 4 potential, and both have Hall of Fame coached. Ultimately, despite Kansas having much more experience in Q1 games, I have to go with St John’s here. They are really hot right now, and Kansas has been kind of inconsistent, especially down the stretch.
3 Michigan State vs 11 USF
While USF is one of my most likely double digit seed candidates to move on to the sweet 16, Michigan State is my favorite 3 seed. If USF would have drawn any of the other 3 seeds, I probably would have picked them, but Michigan State and coach Tom Izzo are too good for the Bulls.
2 UConn vs 7 UCLA
UConn has been sloppy this year. They got brutally murdered by St John’s in the Big East championship, and they have losses to lowly teams such as Marquette and Creighton. UCLA on the other hand, is playing their best ball right now, and they have taken down some stellar teams before. I’ll take UCLA in the upset.
Sweet 16
1 Duke vs 5 St John’s
This should be another one of the best games of the tournament. St John’s can really play, and is an extremely dangerous 5 seed. With that being said, Duke has been so dominant, I just don’t see their run ending before the Final 4. They are too good of a team to let a 5 seed eliminate them.
3 Michigan State vs 7 UCLA
A rematch from the Big Ten Tournament where UCLA actually got the better of the Spartans. Michigan State should get their revenge this time around. A one time anomaly is believable, but I don’t think UCLA can get it done twice against the same team.
Elite 8
1 Duke vs 3 Michigan State
This is a rematch from earlier this season where Duke won 66-60. I love it when we get a good blue blood matchup like this late in the tournament, and this game shouldn’t disappoint. As much as I would like to pick Michigan State here, I think Duke will get the win again. Duke has 17 Q1 wins! They can handle the grind.
South
This region will lack the iconic matchups that should make for great TV in the East, but this region has the weakest 1 seed, so that leaves the door open for a lower seed to make some noise.
Any of the top 5 seeds could make the Final 4, but the top are really the main contenders here. As far as Cinderella opportunities go, I think there are quite a few. 10 seed Texas A&M has 5 Q1 wins, so they can hang with some of the higher seeds. 11 seed VCU has the easiest 6 seed (UNC), so I could see them making the Sweet 16 with some luck against Illinois. 13 seed Troy is what really intrigues me. It’s not every day that you see a 13 seed with a Q1 win and two Q2 wins as well as another Q2 game win which they lost in 3 OTs. Troy could make some noise.
1st Round
1 Florida vs 16 Prairie View A&M
Once again, I would never pick a 16 seed, so I’ll go with Florida.
8 Clemson vs 9 Iowa
These are two solid teams. While Iowa is ranked significantly higher than Clemson in both the NET and KenPom, I am going with Clemson here. Clemson has more Q1 wins, Iowa has two Q3 losses, and Clemson has more recent tournament success.
5 Vanderbilt vs 12 McNeese State
While McNeese has a surprisingly good season with their new coach, and they are one of the best 12 seeds, I still have to go with Vanderbilt here. Vandy has played very well as of late, including a double digit victory over Florida! They won’t blow you away with athleticism, but they are very good, and I don’t think a 12 seed can take them out.
4 Nebraska vs 13 Troy
Don’t get me wrong, I think Nebraska is really good. However, the statistics say that a 13 seed will win a game, and Troy is by far my favorite 13 seed. Troy is the most accomplished of the 13s, and Nebraska isn’t quite a Final 4 contender, so I like the risk reward with this pick.
6 North Carolina vs 11 VCU
North Carolina is the worst 6 seed, and I don’t know if they have the juice to keep going. VCU is on a bit of a roll right now after winning the A10 tournament, and I like them to keep it going with a win here.
3 Illinois vs 14 Penn
Illinois should win this for sure. I try to avoid picking 14 seeds unless I really dislike the 3 seed, but Illinois is one of the best 3 seeds.
7 St Mary’s vs 10 Texas A&M
This is an interesting matchup. Texas A&M has several Q1 wins, but none of them were against top teams. St Mary’s only has one, but it was against Gonzaga. I think I have to go with St Mary’s here, just because TAMU really didn’t finish the season well, and they don’t have any great wins like St Mary’s does.
2 Houston vs 15 Idaho
Houston. Idaho doesn’t have a shot.
Round of 32
1 Florida vs 8 Clemson
Clemson is good, but they haven’t beaten a team quite like Florida before. Florida is coming off their worst loss of the season, but I’m sure they’ll be back and ready to go by the time they play Clemson. Florida wins close.
5 Vanderbilt vs 13 Troy
Troy is a really good 13 seed, but a 13 seed is a 13 seed for a reason. I don’t think they have the staying power to pull off two upsets in a row. Vanderbilt is really good, and they will continue on to the second weekend.
3 Illinois vs 11 VCU
I was very tempered to pick VCU here, and maybe I will change my mind later in the week, but for now I’m picking Illinois. Illinois is really good, and I feel it would be a little too risky to go for the upset here.
2 Houston vs 7 St Mary’s
Don’t get me wrong, I like St Mary’s, but they only have one Q1 win. They just don’t beat teams like Houston very often. In my opinion, Houston is playing at a 1 seed level right now, and they are really a tough draw for St Mary’s. Houston should win this pretty easily.
Sweet 16
1 Florida vs 5 Vanderbilt
How did this happen? How did Vandy end up in the same region as Florida? Vanderbilt won just a week ago in this matchup by double digits, and they almost won in their first meeting. Florida is a really good team, probably better than Vandy, but something about Vandy just works against the Gators. I’ll take Vandy to win this again.
2 Houston vs 3 Illinois
This is a matchup between my best 2 seed and one of the best 3 seeds. Should be a really good one, but I have to go with Houston here. The Cougars are more consistent, have a long history of tournament success, and they are better in Q1 games.
Elite 8
2 Houston vs 5 Vanderbilt
This is where the run ends for Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt had one of their best seasons that I can remember, but there is a reason they are a 5 seed and Houston is a 2. Vandy is a very streaky team. They will get on a run for a few games, and then come crashing down. Houston has been a consistent force all year, and I’m going to stick with them here.
West
This is probably the strongest region in this year’s bracket. They have my no. 1 team (Arizona), one of the best 2 seeds, a 3 seed that plays like a 1 seed most of the time, a 4 seed with a Hall of Fame coach, a 5 seed with wins over all of the top Big Ten teams, a 6 seed with maybe the best player in the country, a 7 seed that is 25-8 on the season, a 9 seed that is no. 26 in the NET, and a 10 and 11 seed with 12 combined Q1 wins. This region is loaded. Any of the top 5 seeds could go to the Final 4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if BYU makes a run if AJ Dybantsa gets hot.
There are two double digit seeds that I think could reach the Sweet 16. Missouri and Texas. Both have several Q1 wins, and their matchup may be favorable. While BYU has a high ceiling, they have lost to a lot of teams that are around Texas’ level. This is one of the most likely 11 seeds to win. While Gonzaga plays like one of the best teams in the country most of the time, they have been vulnerable to inferior opponents a few times. If Texas catches them on a bad night, they could get the upset. Miami could prove to be a tough 7 seed, but they definitely aren’t the hardest draw Missouri could have got. Missouri is probably the best 10 seed, and they have several Q1 wins, so I could see them getting the round 1 upset.
1st Round
1 Arizona vs 16 LIU Brooklyn
16 seeds never win, so give me Arizona.
8 Villanova vs 9 Utah State
This is a good 8 vs 9 matchup. Both have been really good in lesser conferences than the main 3 (SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12). I’m leaning towards Utah State here though. They are significantly higher ranked than Villanova in both the NET and KenPom, and they are significantly better in Q1 games.
5 Wisconsin vs 12 High Point
High Point is one of the better 12 seeds, but Wisconsin is playing like one of the best teams in the country right now. Wisconsin may be a 5 seed, but they are playing like a 2 or a 3 right now.
4 Arkansas vs 13 Hawaii
Hawaii is a pretty decent 13 seed, but they caught Arkansas at the wrong time. Arkansas is fresh off a SEC championship win, and they are playing really well right now.
6 BYU vs 11 Texas
Texas is probably the best 11 seed… but I’m still taking BYU here. AJ Dybantsa is too good to let his team go down in the first round. BYU has the highest ceiling of any of the 6 seeds, and I expect them to show up to this tournament ready to play.
3 Gonzaga vs 14 Kennesaw State
Gonzaga should win this easily, but they did lose to Q3 Portland earlier this season, so they have shown that they are susceptible to an upset.
7 Miami vs 10 Missouri
Missouri is a tough 10 seed, but Miami is playing pretty well right now. I could really go either way here, but it is better to lean on the side of the higher seed in a situation like this.
2 Purdue vs 15 Queens
Purdue will win this easily.
Round of 32
1 Arizona vs 9 Utah State
Utah State is probably the most dangerous 9 seed, but Arizona is another animal. Whenever I watch Arizona play, they just seem like the most complete, best team in the country. Upsetting Arizona would require insane 3 point and turnover luck, and I don’t think USU is going to get that.
4 Arkansas vs 5 Wisconsin
These two teams seem pretty even. They are both 8-8 in Q1 games, and they both made long runs in a major conference tournament. The main separator here is how they do against top 5 seeds. Arkansas is 3-5 against teams that are a top 5 seed. Wisconsin is 5-3, including a win over Michigan. Both teams are playing extremely well right now, but Wisconsin is just a little better.
3 Gonzaga vs 6 BYU
I love it when we get classic matchups in the tournament. This former WCC matchup should be a fun one. BYU has the best player here obviously, but Gonzaga is a more consistently dominant team. BYU has stood up to teams like Gonzaga before, but they fall short most of the time, and I believe that to be the case again. Gonzaga will get the win in a thriller.
2 Purdue vs 7 Miami
Miami is pretty good, but they haven’t beaten a team nearly as good as Purdue. Louisville is probably the best team they have beaten, and they are a 6 seed. Purdue should win this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami made it interesting for a while.
Sweet 16
1 Arizona vs 5 Wisconsin
One could call Wisconsin a giant slayer. They have taken down many of the country’s top squads, and Arizona is THE top squad. If anybody can take Arizona down before the Elite 8, it’s Wisconsin. With that being said, Arizona is my championship pick. They have 16 Q1 wins, and they have only two losses the entire year. Arizona will have to play their butts off, but they will get the win.
2 Purdue vs 3 Gonzaga
These two teams have been some of the best for years now, and yet, neither has won the championship. Both have been mostly dominant all year, but they have had teh occasional slip up. Right now, I see these teams as just about even, but I’m going to pick Gonzaga here. They just seem like they have a higher ceiling, so I’ll trust that that ceiling will show up.
Elite 8
1 Arizona vs 3 Gonzaga
Two of the best teams of the west, and this should be a good matchup. I’m picking Arizona mostly just because of consistency. It’s hard to win 4 games in a row against quality opponents, and Arizona has shown again and again that they can do that, while Gonzaga has been able to beat down on chumps for a large portion of the year.
Midwest
This is probably the weirdest region. Michigan was once on the same level as Duke and Arizona, but they have since come down to earth, and they have been vulnerable. Iowa State is extremely inconsistent. Sometimes they play like one of the best teams, and sometimes they are extremely mediocre. Virginia is by far the worst 3 seed, Alabama is a good 4 seed, but Aden Holloway’s status is up in the air right now. Texas Tech was once a sneaky contender, but they have fallen off without JT Toppin. Tennessee is a very good 6 seed and they are ranked 20th in the NET and 16th in KenPom. Kentucky is a dangerous 7 seed with a lot of talent. Georgia is the best 8 seed, and St Louis could prove to be a dangerous 9 seed. Santa Clara is really good as a 10 seed, and they almost beat Gonzaga just last week. I could see any of the top 6 seeds going to the Final 4.
1st Round
1 Michigan vs 16 Howard
Michigan obviously.
8 Georgia vs 9 St Louis
This is a cool matchup. You don’t get mid major teams like St Louis in a 9 spot very often, and they get to play a SEC team like Georgia. One of my main concerns with St Louis though is their strength of schedule. They just haven’t been able to really play teams at Georgia’s level before, so it makes it hard to predict how they will do. Georgia has been pretty inconsistent, but I’ll pick them here.
5 Texas Tech vs 12 Akron
Here me out. Akron is pretty good. They are 54th in the NET. That is higher than any other 12 seed. Texas Tech isn’t at full strength and they have lost 3 straight. At least one 12 seed wins every year, and this seems like the best bet for this year’s bracket. Give me Akron.
4 Alabama vs 13 Hofstra
Roll Tide.
6 Tennessee vs 11 Miami (OH)
While I am impressed that Miami (OH) was able to get the win over SMU, they are playing against the best 6 seed. Tennessee isn’t quite as good as they have been in years past, but they are still a force to be reckoned with. Tennessee will get the win.
3 Virginia vs 14 Wright State
Virginia is my least favorite 3 seed, but I just don’t see Wright State pulling off the upset.
7 Kentucky vs 10 Santa Clara
Santa Clara is pretty hot right now and Kentucky is pretty not. I’ll take Santa Clara.
2 Iowa State vs 15 Tennessee State
Iowa State has had some lows, but they will win this one.
Round of 32
1 Michigan vs 8 Georgia
I think Georgia has it in them to pull off the upset, but I just don’t think it’s gonna happen. Michigan’s only losses are to Duke, Wisconsin, and Purdue. They kill teams like Georgia. Michigan gets the win.
4 Alabama vs 12 Akron
Roll Tide.
3 Virginia vs 6 Tennessee
Tennessee is only 4 spots behind Virginia in KenPom despite being 3 seeds lower. Sounds like value to me. I’m taking Tennessee.
2 Iowa State vs 10 Santa Clara
I am tempted to pick Santa Clara here and hope for an Iowa State slip up, but Iowa State has to be the pick here. Iowa State has such a high ceiling, I just don’t want to get screwed.
Sweet 16
1 Michigan vs 4 Alabama
Roll Tide.
2 Iowa State vs 6 Tennessee
Tennessee could definitely win this, but screw Tennessee.
Elite 8
ROLL TIDE.
Final 4
Final 4
1 Duke vs 2 Houston
A rematch from last year’s Final 4, but this time Duke has gotten better, and Houston has gotten worse. Give me Duke.
1 Arizona vs 4 Alabama
Roll Tide… But in all seriousness, I saw how this game played out in the regular season. Alabama has what it takes to hang with Arizona for a half, but I don’t know if they can beat Arizona in a 40 minute game. Nate Oats is a fantastic tournament coach, and Alabama’s shooting makes them a threat to anyone. That is one of the main reasons why I have them taking down great teams like Michigan and Iowa State. If they have a good shooting night, Alabama can beat pretty much anyone. Pretty much. Arizona and Duke would be my exceptions. I’ll take Arizona, but closer than the regular season matchup.
Championship
1 Duke vs 1 Arizona
These two teams have clearly been the best all season. They are so complete, and neither relies on just one player, which is impressive considering Duke has one of the best players in Cameron Boozer. Duke doesn’t have their PG. They are still elite without him, but I think that could give Arizona a slight edge. Both teams have an insane amount of Q1 wins, and both are extremely consistent. Duke maybe has a little bit more star power with Boozer, while Arizona is probably a little better all around. I could really go either way, but I’m going to stick with Arizona.
Reseeding
1 – Arizona, Duke, Michigan, Houston
2 – Florida, Iowa State, Michigan State, Purdue
3 – Illinois, Gonzaga, St John’s, UConn
4 – Nebraska, Virginia, Kansas, Wisconsin
5 – Texas Tech, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
6 – Louisville, Tennessee, Miami, BYU
7 – North Carolina, St Mary’s, UCLA, Clemson
8 – Iowa, Georgia, TCU, Kentucky
9 – Santa Clara, Ohio State, Villanova, Utah State
10 – UCF, St Louis, Missouri, Texas A&M
11 – Texas, VCU, USF, Miami (OH)
*And then the rest of the seeds would be the same
Ranking
I will rank each team compared to other teams of their seed (1-11):
1
- Arizona
- Duke
- Michigan
- Florida
2
- Houston
- Iowa State
- Purdue
- UConn
3
- Michigan State
- Illinois
- Gonzaga
- Virginia
4
- Kansas
- Nebraska
- Alabama
- Arkansas
5
- St John’s
- Wisconsin
- Vanderbilt
- Texas Tech
6
- Tennessee
- Louisville
- BYU
- North Carolina
7
- UCLA
- Miami
- St Mary’s
- Kentucky
8
- Clemson
- Georgia
- Villanova
- Ohio State
9
- Utah State
- TCU
- Iowa
- St Louis
10
- Santa Clara
- UCF
- Missouri
- Texas A&M
11
- Texas
- VCU
- USF
- Miami (OH)
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