My preview for the most wide open conference in football:
In stark contrast to the ACC, this conference is up for grabs. I would not be shocked if any of the top 11 teams ended up winning the whole thing. This should be another crazy season, with upsets galore, and I am excited to see how it all unfolds.
Arizona
Conference Rank: 10
Record Projection: 6-6 (4-5)
Impact Opponents: vs KSU, vs BAY, at ASU
Year 1 was much worse than I thought under Brent Brennan. I really expected more, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they got back on the right track this year. They still have Noah Fifita at QB, and they have plenty of talent and experience elsewhere. The offense should be quite good and the defense should be better, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they made some noise in the Big 12.
Arizona State
Conference Rank: 2
Record Projection: 10-3 (7-2)
Impact Opponents: at BAY, vs TTU, at ISU
Arizona State was a pleasant surpsie last year, but they won’t be sneaking up on anyone this time around. The schedule is difficult and they lose their best player in Cam Skattebo. They basically return all of their other main contributors, and I am excited to see how Sam Leavitt performs under the spot light. They will be very good again, but they don’t have difference maker like Skattebo that will put them over the top.
Baylor
Conference Rank: 3
Record Projection: 8-4 (7-2)
Impact Opponents: vs AUB, vs ASU, vs KSU
Baylor had a fantastic finish to last season, and they will carry that into this one. They won 6 straight to end the regular season before losing the bowl game. They have the best QB in the conference, one of the best RBs, and a ton of returning production. The only thing that I am unsure of here is the schedule. It is hard to rebound from a slow start, and the beginning of their schedule is brutal. They must play Auburn and SMU in the first two weeks, get a break with Samford, and then open conference play with Arizona State. There is a very realistic possibilty of Baylor starting 1-3, and it would be very hard to rebound from that. They have Kansas State just a few weeks after ASU, and they have to play Utah later in the season as well. They are really good. One of the best in the Big 12, but the schedule will be very difficult to navigate.
BYU
Conference Rank: 7
Record Projection: 8-4 (5-4)
Impact Opponents: vs UT, at ISU, at TTU
BYU was my initial pick to win the conference. They have one of the top coaches in the conference, one of if not the easiest schedule in the conference, and they had one of the top QBs. Now that QB is gone, and they are going into this year with no experience at the most important position on the field. They have talent everywhere, and the schedule is really easy. They should be favored in their first 6 games, maybe even 7 as they get Utah at home. If whoever ends up starting at QB breaks out and turns out be about as good as Retzlaff, then they could win the conference and go to the playoffs, but those are some big shoes to fill.
Cincinnati
Conference Rank: 12
Record Projection: 5-7 (3-6)
Impact Opponents: vs NEB, vs ISU, vs BAY
Scott Satterfield needs results quickly, and unfortunately the schedule will make that difficult. Cincinnati should be pretty decent, but they have a lot of swing game that they gotta win if they want to make a bowl game. They are perfectly capable, but if injuries start piling up, things could quickly spiral until Satterfield ends up getting fired.
Colorado
Conference Rank: 16
Record Projection: 3-9 (1-8)
Impact Opponents: vs ISU, vs ASU, at KSU
Shedeur and Travis Hunter are what kept this team afloat last year, and now they have neither. They also lose their leading rusher, their top 3 tacklers, and top 4 receivers (inculding Hunter). They once again have a lot of transfers, but I just don’t see any of them being able to replace the production they got from Sanders and Hunter. QB could be solid though with either transfer Kaidon Salter or 5-star QB Julian Lewis. I have them going 3-9, but that is probably their floor. They could definitely make it back to a bowl game, but they really have their work cut out for them. They must play 6 of the top 8 teams in the conference.
Houston
Conference Rank: 13
Record Projection: 6-6 (3-6)
Impact Opponents: vs TTU, at ASU, at BAY
Year 1 with Willie Fritz wasn’t great, but that was to be expected. I expect a step forward this year. They have a little more continuity, and the schedule is pretty manageable for the most part. Other than playing the conference’s top 3 teams, they also play 5 of the bottom 7, including the bottom 3. They shoukd be good enough to surprise some people this year, and they should go back to a bowl.
Iowa State
Conference Rank: 5
Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3)
Impact Opponents: vs KSU, vs BYU, vs ASU
Iowa State will always be one of the best teams in the conference as long as Matt Campbell is there. They have a really good QB in Rocco Becht and a great RB duo. They always have one of the best defenses in the conference, and they could contend to finally win the conference.
Kansas
Conference Rank: 9
Record Projection: 7-5 (5-4)
Impact Opponents: at MZ, at TTU, vs KSU
Kansas was one of my most dissapointing teams last year, but they seemed to turn it around in the second half (they got wins over three of the top 4 teams in the conference!). Lance Leipold is a very good coach and Jalon Daniels is back at QB. Kansas will resemble the second half of last year much more than the first.
Kansas State
Conference Rank: 4
Record Projection: 9-3 (6-3)
Impact Opponents: at BAY, vs TTU, at UT
Avery Johnson is a good QB, but he was never great last year. If he can be great, KSU could win the conference. This team is in contention every single year, they just haven’t had a great QB to get them more than just the one conference title.
Oklahoma State
Conference Rank: 11
Record Projection: 6-6 (4-5)
Impact Opponents: at ORE, vs BAY, at TTU
After years of sustained success under Mike Gundy, it hit absolute rock bottom last year. 3-9, 0-9 in conference, and they honestly should have been 2-10 bceause they lucked into that win against Arkansas. So what’s up with the Cowboys? They’re never this bad. Last year is the outlier in Mike Gundy’s career, and I expect it to stay that way. It may be a little dramatic to say that they will return to their success they had in 2021 or 2023, but they should make a bowl again. If Gundy doesn’t bounce back this year, then he might be done.
TCU
Conference Rank: 8
Record Projection: 6-6 (5-4)
Impact Opponents: at ASU, at KSU, vs BAY
Josh Hoover is one of the most underrated QBs in the country. He has a good supporting cast, and defense should be improved. So why do the wins decrease? Schedule. They must play at UNC and home against SMU in con conference before they play 5 of the top 7 teams in the conference including 2, 3, 4, and 5. Half of their schedule is against teams in my top 31. That’s rough. They have the potential to beat some of these top teams, but not on a week in week out basis.
Texas Tech
Conference Rank: 1
Record Projection: 11-2 (7-2)
Impact Opponents: at UT, at ASU, at KSU
Texas Tech is trying to buy a championship, and I think it is going to work… at a conference level. They have by far the most talent in the conference, and they have 21 returning starters (according to Phil Steele’s system that includes starter calliber transfers). Behren Morton is one of the conference’s best QBs and Joey McGuire had already been doing a pretty good job getting Texas Tech to three straight winning seasons. This is the year that TTU sees the fruit of their labors (oil money) and makes the playoffs. I’m just not sold they can make much of a run once they get there.
UCF
Conference Rank: 15
Record Projection: 4-8 (2-7)
Impact Opponents: at KSU, at BAY, at TTU
This is a rebuild year for UCF. They got Scott Frost back, and the team is filled with transfers. They have 67 players on the roster that weren’t last year! While Frost failed at Nebraska, UCF is a good fit for him, and he should be able to get them back on track in the long term. I don’t expect much this year though with an almost completely new team.
Utah
Conference Rank: 6
Record Projection: 8-4 (5-4)
Impact Opponents: vs TTU, vs ASU, at BAY
Much like OKST, last year was pretty much rock bottom for Utah, much thanks to all the injuries they had QB. Kyle Whittingham almost always has this team ready to go, but you really can’t do much when you don’t have a QB. Lucky for him, I believe Utah has one with star potential in Devon Dampier. They should be the best team at the line of scrimmage in the conference, and they should return to form for the most part this year after the outlier that was 2024. They should be very good, but they don’t really have much to write home about at the skill positions, which prevents them from being one of the conference’s top contenders.
West Virginia
Conference Rank: 14
Record Projection: 4-8 (2-7)
Impact Opponents: vs UT, at ASU, vs TTU
West Virginia is in basically the same spot as UCF. They get back one of the best coaches in their history (Rich Rodriguez), and they have an insane amount of transfers. I also think Rich Rod will be able to get WVU back on track in the long term. I give them a slight edge over UCF though, mostly because of the return of RB Jaheim White, and they have a few more high end transfers than UCF does. I don’t expect a bowl this year, but they should be able to contend in the future.
Big 12 Championship Preview
Like I said before, each of the top 11 teams in the conference have a shot at making the Big 12 championship, but there are 5 main contenders in my opinion. TTU, ASU, BAY, KSU, and ISU. Utah and BYU have decent shots, but they need some stars to emerge. I give Texas Tech the edge to win it all, mainly because of their overall talent, but Arizona State, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Baylor have basically run the conference for the last few years, and TTU needs to prove themselves. Arizona State came out of nowehere last year to win the conference, and while TTU isn’t exactly flying under the radar, they still have never been in a situation like this before.
Texas Tech will beat Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship.
All-Big 12 Team
Offense
QB: Sawyer Robertson (Baylor)
RB: Dylan Edwards (Kansas State)
RB: LJ Martin (BYU)
WR: Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
WR: Chase Roberts (BYU)
WR: Caleb Douglas (Texas Tech)
TE: Joe Royer (Cincinnati)
OT: Spencer Fano (Utah)
OT: Howard Sampson (Texas Tech)
OG: Omar Aigbedion (Baylor)
OG: Davion Carter (Texas Tech)
C: Sam Hecht (Kansas State)
Defense
DT: Lee Hunter (Texas Tech)
DT: Domonique Orange (Iowa State)
EDGE: David Bailey (Texas Tech)
EDGE: Jimmori Robinson (West Virginia)
LB: Jacob Rodriguez (Texas Tech)
LB: Isaiah Glasker (BYU)
LB: Keaton Thomas (Baylor)
CB: Jontez Williams (Iowa State)
CB: Keith Abney (Arizona State)
S: Jeremiah Cooper (Iowa State)
S: Xavion Alford (Arizona State)
Special Teams
K: Will Ferrin (BYU)
P: Palmer Williams (Baylor)
KR: Jeremiah Patterson (Arizona)
PR: Parker Kingston (BYU)
Conference Rankings
- Texas Tech Red Raiders 11-2 (7-2)
- Arizona State Sun Devils 10-3 (7-2)
- Baylor Bears 8-4 (7-2)
- Kansas State Wildcats 9-3 (6-3)
- Iowa State Cyclones 9-3 (6-3)
- Utah Utes 8-4 (5-4)
- BYU Cougars 8-4 (5-4)
- TCU Horned Frogs 6-6 (5-4)
- Kansas Jayhawks 7-5 (5-4)
- Arizona Wildcats 6-6 (4-5)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys 6-6 (4-5)
- Cincinnati Bearcats 5-7 (3-6)
- Houston Cougars 6-6 (3-6)
- West Virginia Mountaineers 4-8 (2-7)
- UCF Golden Knights 4-8 (2-7)
- Colorado Buffaloes 3-9 (1-8)
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