With Sorsby’s eligibility still in question, Texas Tech may be vulnerable, but can anyone take advantage of this oppurtunity?
If Sorsby is allowed to play, it would be the biggest failure NCAA history. The entire integrity of sport goes out the window, and no NCAA rules would matter. I’m of the opinion that Sorsby will ultimately be deemed ineligible. Texas Tech shouldn’t be as untouchable as they were last year. There are few teams that may be able to take advantage of TTU’s lack of QB.
Arizona
Conference Rank: 8
Projected Record: 7-5 (4-5)
Impact Opponents: at BYU, at Texas Tech, vs Utah
Arizona was sneaky good last year, and they return a lot of what made them so good including most of their staff and QB Noah Fifita. In this league of parity, a 6-6 team can be just as good as a 9-3 team. It’s how you perform in the clutch that matters. They have a slim margin for error, but if things fall right, they could finish near the top of the conference.
Arizona State
Conference Rank: 6
Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3)
Impact Opponents: at Texas A&M, at Texas Tech, at BYU
Arizona State came back to earth last year, but I expect them to better this time around. Cutter Boley has the potential to be better than Leavitt in my opinion, and the team as a whole has more talent. They have a really good roster, and they just need to figure out how to get all these transfers to mesh. Their schedule is brutal though. They must play TAMU, TTU, BYU, and Arizona on the road, while they also have to play Kansas State at home. Because of that, they don’t have a very high ceiling from a record standpoint, though the team should be improved.
Baylor
Conference Rank: 11
Projected Record: 6-6 (4-5)
Impact Opponents: at BYU, vs Texas Tech, at Houston
Dave Aranda is cooked. Baylor has been underperforming for years, and they will be mediocre once again. The one thing that gives them any sort of hope at a winning record is the arrival of QB DJ Lagway. He will probably play much better in the Big 12 than he did in the SEC. The schedule isn’t doing them any favors either. Auburn and Texas Tech at home and ASU, BYU, and Houston on the road. All 5 of those games will most surely end up in the loss column.
BYU
Conference Rank: 2
Projected Record: 11-2 (8-1)
Impact Opponents: vs Notre Dame, vs Arizona State, at Utah
If there’s a year for BYU to finally break through and make the playoffs, this is it. They return a roster that is better in the trenches than probably anyone in the conference. Bear Bachmeier is a budding star. LJ Martin is one of the best backs in the country. The defense will be really good, though there is some cause for concern with the loss of DC Jay Hill. Can they get over the hump? It seems crazy that they could suddenly win the Big 12 after being schooled by Texas Tech twice last year, but the Sorsby situation may provide an opening for BYU to close that gap immediately.
Cincinnati
Conference Rank: 15
Projected Record: 4-8 (1-8)
Impact Opponents: vs Texas Tech, at Houston, at BYU
This is where things come crashing down for Cincinnati. I incorrectly predicted that they would suck last year, but they don’t have Brendan Sorsby anymore. That coupled with coming off a 5 game losing streak, I don’t think Cincy has much of a chance to succeed this year. They got a new DC which could help, but they just don’t have anything going on roster wise that would make anyone excited. They have a very low ceiling, and this should be the last year of Scott Satterfield.
Colorado
Conference Rank: 14
Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7)
Impact Opponents: vs Texas Tech, vs Utah, vs Houston
As always, Deion has some interesting pieces here, but I don’t know if everything can come together and create a unit that can get bowl eligible. They have the talent, but there just isn’t enough proven production here to give me confidence. The schedule is brutal too. They must play 6 of the top 7 teams in the conference, and they have two road games in non-conference play against some solid teams (Georgia Tech and Northwestern). A bowl game isn’t completely out of the question, but they will need to orchestrate several upsets.
Houston
Conference Rank: 3
Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2)
Impact Opponents: at Texas Tech, vs Oklahoma State, at Utah
Houston has the tools to build on their 10 win season last year. Connor Weigman is a stud at QB, and he has a great supporting cast. The defense looks like it could be one of the best in conference. They are one of the most slept on teams in the country, and I would actually put them at around the same level as Texas Tech and BYU. It really just comes down to who can win the big games between the three.
Iowa State
Conference Rank: 16
Projected Record: 3-9 (1-8)
Impact Opponents: vs Utah, at BYU, vs Oklahoma State
Iowa State will fall off massively this season. Matt Campbell is the soul reason that this program was able to be successful over the last several years. The team is filled with almost exclusively transfers. The goal this year is to keep games close, be competitive. They need a foundation they can build on.
Kansas
Conference Rank: 10
Projected Record: 6-6 (4-5)
Impact Opponents: vs Missouri, at Utah, vs BYU
Lance Leipold has done a great job, but I don’t think there is much of ceiling with this group. If they couldn’t get it done with Jalon Daniels at QB, I doubt they will with Cole Ballard. Outside of QB, the team overall should be improved, especially with the return of OC Andy Kotelnicki. Kansas is decent, but they won’t contend for a Big 12 title.
Kansas State
Conference Rank: 7
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4)
Impact Opponents: vs Houston, at Arizona State, vs Oklahoma State
K State had a rough 2025. 6-6 isn’t up to standard. They brought in Collin Klein at HC, and they still have Avery Johnson at QB with Joe Jackson at RB. The offense should be really good if they use their weapons right. The defense has a few more question marks. The schedule looks pretty easy all things considered. The non-conference slate is light, and they avoid Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah. They can rack up some wins, but I wouldn’t put them on the same level as TTU, BYU, Houston, or Utah.
Oklahoma State
Conference Rank: 5
Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3)
Impact Opponents: vs Oregon, at Houston, vs Texas Tech
OKST might have made one of the best hires of the offseason by grabbing Eric Morris from North Texas. Along with him they get QB Drew Mestemaker, RB Caleb Hawkins, and WR Wyatt Young. The offense may be the conference’s best as Mestemaker should be at least a top 3 QB in the league. The defense can’t get much worse than it already was, and I expect some improvement. OKST should be the most improved team in the country, but I don’t think the defense will be good enough to put them in Big 12 championship contention.
TCU
Conference Rank: 9
Projected Record: 7-5 (4-5)
Impact Opponents: vs BYU, vs Utah, at Texas Tech
This team has two big questions. Who can replace Josh Hoover and who can replace Eric McAlister? The rest of the teams looks ready to win, but it is hard to replace stars like that. You don’t get dudes like that everyday at TCU. Ultimately, I don’t think they’ll find the stars they need to compete for conference title, but they should still be a solid squad.
Texas Tech
Conference Rank: 1
Projected Record: 12-1 (8-1)
Impact Opponents: vs Houston, vs Arizona State, at Oklahoma State
Texas Tech obviously still has the most talent in the conference. There is no debate. They were obviously at completely different level than everyone else last year. This year, there may be some vulnerability. I don’t think they’re going to have a QB, at least until Hammond comes back from injury. I’m also very curious if their front 7 can be as dominant as they were last year. They hit on every single transfer last season, but ca they do it again? They have some proven guys coming in, but we’ll see if their play can translate to the Big 12. Texas Tech will be bigger, faster, and stronger than everyone else, but BYU, Houston, and Utah all have MUCH better QBs. We’ll see if that closes the gap enough for them to be upset.
UCF
Conference Rank: 13
Projected Record: 6-6 (3-5)
Impact Opponents: at Houston, at Oklahoma State, vs BYU
This team is the very definition of mediocre. The defense should be okay. The offense should be okay. The schedule is somewhat manageable, so a bowl berth is a realistic expectation. The only way I see this team getting a winning record is if Alonza Barnett III turns into a star. He was great at James Madison, but he’s in the Big 12 now. If his play translates and possibly improves, UCF could be pretty good. We’ll see.
Utah
Conference Rank: 4
Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3)
Impact Opponents: vs Houston, vs BYU, at Arizona
Their AD has some massive balls. Letting KYLE WHITTINGHAM leave is beyond bold. Mr Mark Harlan must be EXTREMELY confident in this Morgan Scalley guy. Guess what… I kind of see the vision. This could be better for Utah in the long term. Right now? Eh. They look to be pretty good. They keep Dampier and Parker at QB and RB. The defense should be good as always. Can this team be better? I really don’t know. They seem like the same ‘ol Utah, but without one of the top coaches in all of college football. They will be really good, heck, I’d even say they are a dark horse Big 12 contender if TTU, BYU, and Houston all fall short of expectations (which is certainly a possibility), but I can’t see Utah turning into a playoff level team in year 1 of the post-Whittingham era.
West Virginia
Conference Rank: 12
Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6)
Impact Opponents: at Texas Tech, vs Houston, at Utah
Do I believe in Rich Rodriguez? Yes, he is a really good coach, and he knows how to build a winner. Do I believe in this roster? Eh, not really. The offense could be fun with Michael Hawkins Jr at QB and Cam Cook at RB, but it won’t be one of the best in the conference. The defense should be better, but they won’t be stifling by any means. A good coach with a meh roster can make a bowl game, and that’s exactly what I think is going to happen.
Big 12 Championship Preview
This was the hardest P4 conference to predict. Texas Tech’s QB situation is so odd. BYU looks like they will be amazing, but we saw what TTU did to them last year. Houston was really good last year, and I expect them to improve, but we haven’t seen them win the big game yet. Utah lost Whittingham, but they should be competitive in evey game they play, and they have one of the best QBs in the conference. Part of me wants to pick BYU because it just seems like they will get over the hump eventually, and with the given circumstances, this could be their best shot. I want to pick Houston because literally no one is talking about them, and I think they could be just as good as TTU and BYU. There’s a little part of me that wants to pick Utah too, because I really don’t think they will fall off much, if at all…
In the end, I think Texas Tech’s talent will prevail, and it will be too much for BYU to handle in the Big 12 championship once again. I hope they prove me wrong, but it just feels foolish to go against a team that spanked BYU like a misbehaving toddler last year.
Texas Tech 23 BYU 20
Rankings
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (15)
- BYU Cougars (16)
- Houston Cougars (18)
- Utah Utes (21)
- Oklahoma State Cowboys (25)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (29)
- Kansas State Wildcats (31)
- Arizona Wildcats (38)
- TCU Horned Frogs (46)
- Kansas Jayhawks (56)
- Baylor Bears (64)
- West Virginia Mountaineers (65)
- UCF Golden Knights (71)
- Colorado Buffaloes (72)
- Cincinnati Bearcats (75)
- Iowa State Cyclones (76)
*FBS Rank in ( )
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