Who will be the 12th team in the playoffs?
With so many good coaches from the American conference, and the creation of the new Pac 12, the Group of 6 playoff picture is wide open. It’s anybody’s game, and I am really excited to see how the new MWC and Pac 12 look.
American
This is the most wide open conference in the country by far. There are EIGHT different teams that could reasonably contend for a conference title, and winning the American automatically puts you in playoff contention.
There are two types of contenders here. There are 4 teams that retained their HC, and look to be good with continuity, and there are 4 teams that lost their HC and must rely on unproven talent.
The 4 teams that managed to return their HC are Navy, Army, UTSA, and East Carolina. All of these teams have been good for a while, especially Navy.
Unfortunately for Navy, in a year where so many other teams in the conference are facing some uncertainty, they are facing some uncertainty of their own. No more Blake Horvath, and they must replace a lot of their main contributors from a team that went 11-2 last year.
Army on the other hand, has a little bit more continuity, but they had an underwhelming 7-6 record last season, so we’ll see if that returning production is legit.
UTSA has Jeff Traylor, who believe to be a really good coach, and Owen McCown, who is a really good QB. They have underperformed year after year since joining the American, but perhaps they could turn it around this year.
East Carolina has decent experience coming back, and they seem to be the team nobody ever mentions when talking about the American conference. They had 9 wins last year, and they only play 3 of the top 8 teams in the conference. Don’t be surprised if East Carolina has a big year.
The 4 teams that are replacing their HC are Memphis, Tulane, North Texas, and USF.
It almost seems impossible to lose at Memphis, no matter the coach, and I think they actually got a coaching upgrade. Silverfield underachieved during his tenure, and I think Charles Huff should be able to get the job done and get Memphis to the playoffs at some point. This year? Maybe. They must play at UNLV and Boise State, so their chances (and perhaps the American’s chances as a whole) may rely on how they do in those two games alone.
Tulane hired from within, and they were able to retain some dudes. The last two coaches had tremendous success here, so I expect them to remain a solid squad. Their ceiling will most likely come down to what they get out of their QB.
North Texas hired former Troy and West Virginia HC Neal Brown, which I think was a really good move. He was a big winner at Troy, and he is bringing in RB Jaheim White who was a star for him at West Virginia. They have some talent to work with, but it will tough to replace the star power they had last year.
USF hired Brian Hartline who was Ohio State’s OC last year. Yet another good hire. They are also bringing in QB Michael Van Buren Jr, who should really benefit from playing in the American. USF will always be one of the most talented team in the conference, and I think Golesh mostly underachieved with what he had while he was there. Maybe Hartline can really get something out of the inherent advantage they have over other teams in the conference.
All 8 of these teams have a shot at winning the conference, but I believe Memphis will come out on top. They are consistently among the best G6 programs in the company, and bringing in Charles Huff will only help them. Navy seems like they are going to be good every year with Brian Newberry at helm, so I’ll take them to be the runner-up.
Memphis 35 Navy 24
Rankings
- Memphis Tigers (45)
- Navy Midshipmen (61)
- Tulane Green Wave (69)
- Army Black Knights (70)
- USF Bulls (77)
- UTSA Roadrunners (92)
- East Carolina Pirates (93)
- North Texas Mean Green (94)
- Temple Owls (106)
- UAB Blazers (113)
- Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (114)
- Florida Atlantaic Owls (115)
- Rice Owls (125)
- Charlotte 49ers (127)
C-USA
There isn’t much to say with the C-USA as they are normally the worst conference in football. There are three teams that I would say are the main contenders to win the conference, and if one of them finishes with a really good record, they might have a chance to go to the playoffs.
Western Kentucky is consitently solid year after year, and I am shocked that they have been able to retain their coach all of this time. Unfortunatley, the non-conference schedule won’t help their record at all as they must play at Georgia and Indiana. They don’t have much returning production, but HC Tyson Helton usually gets them in a place to compete.
Jax State was a close runner-up last year, but they could win it all this year. They return QB Caden Creel and their defense should be one of the best in the conference. Losing RB Cam Cook is a tough pill to swallow, but the rest of the team should improve enough to make up for the loss. They also have some interesting non-conference games to prove themselves, as they must play against North Dakota State from the MWC, Ohio from the MAC, and Georgia Southern from the Sun Belt.
Kennesaw State as a chance to repeat. They lost a lot of playesr from their offense, inculding their QB, but the defense should remain really good. They were able to hold on to HC Jerry Mack as well, who did a tremendous job last year. They will need someone to emerge at QB if they want a shot, but that isn’t a completely unrealistic possibility.
Ultimately, I have to go with Jax State here. They have the QB advantage, and they have the experience advantage. WKU and Kennesaw State aren’t far behind though.
Jax State 20 Western Kentucky 17
Rankings
- Jax State Gamecocks (88)
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (89)
- Kennesaw State Owls (100)
- Liberty Flames (107)
- FIU Panthers (110)
- Deleware Blue Hens (118)
- Missouri State Bears (132)
- New Mexico State Aggies (133)
- Sam Houston Bearkats (134)
- MTSU Blue Raiders (137)
MAC
I think the MAC might actually be worse than the C-USA this year, though they still might have a better shot at getting a team into the playoffs because I believe Western Michigan might end with a really good record, and that seems to be the main thing the committee looks at when judging G6 teams.
Western Michigan is the obvious favorite. They won the MAC last year as they racked up 10 wins, and they are the only team to have any semblance of continuity on their roster and staff. They were already the best, and they managed to avoid getting raped and pillaged like all the other teams in the MAC. This should be an easy W. They also have a big chance in the non-conference to prove themselves at home against Boise State.
Miami (OH) and Ohio are typically some of the best teams in the MAC, and that should continue this year, as they are the most obvious contenders to challenge Western Michigan. I especially like Miami (OH)’s tranfer RB Rodney Nelson alongside incumbent QB Thomas Gotkowski.
Western Michigan 35 Miami (OH) 17
Rankings
- Western Michigan Broncos (91)
- Miami RedHawks (95)
- Ohio Bobcats (96)
- Toledo Rockets (111)
- Bowling Green Falcons (112)
- Kent State Golden Flashes (119)
- Buffalo Bulls (120)
- Central Michigan Chippewas (123)
- Eastern Michigan Eagles (124)
- Akron Zips (128)
- Ball State Cardinals (135)
- Sacramento State Hornets (136)
- UMass Minuteman (138)
Mountain West
The new Mountain West is weaker than it was before, but it is still the second strongest conference. UNLV is the obvious favorite, but New Mexico, Hawaii, and Air Force could all contend if Jackson Arnold doesn’t work out for UNLV.
Dan Mullen is a really good coach, and his team just so happens a talent edge over everyone else in the conference. Pretty hard to beat that. UNLV has lost three straight MWC championship games, all of which came at the hands of Boise State. They don’t have to deal with Boise State anymore. If Jackson Arnold works at QB and doesn’t completely suck like he did at Oklahoma and Auburn, UNLV will win the Mountain West.
New Mexico was surprisingly one of the best teams in the conference last year, and they will be one of the best yet again. The defense will be really good, and a really good receiving corps. If they can get some better QB play, they could win the conference.
Hawaii should have one of, if not the best offenses in the conference. Their main problem is the defense. They gave up a lot of points last year against their toughest opponents. If they can see some improvement there, they could win the conference.
Air Force didn’t have a good 2025, but this year looks to be much better. Liam Skarza is back at QB, and if he can stay healthy, the offense should be really good. The defense was young and inexperienced last year, but they should be improved this time around. Troy Calhoun is a great coach, and I would be shocked if they had a third straight losing season.
UNLV will probably win the conference, but New Mexico, Hawaii, and possibly Air Force have real shots at challenging them. As long as they can get into a one game situation at the end of the season, anything is possible. As the runner-up, I’ll New Mexico here because they seem to be much more well-rounded than Hawaii, and I will always pick a great defense over a great offense.
UNLV 27 New Mexico 21
Rankings
- UNLV Rebels (34)
- New Mexico Lobos (50)
- Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (55)
- Air Force Falcons (59)
- North Dakota State Bison (78)
- Nevada Wolfpack (101)
- San Jose State Spartans (103)
- Wyoming Cowboys (105)
- UTEP Miners (126)
- Norrthern Illinois Huskies (131)
Pac 12
3 of my top 4 teams in the G6 are in this conference, and there is one team that could take a huge step towards playoff contention as well. I’m also very curious how the flex schedule in the last week will work out. They have the chance to undermine every other conference if they play their cards right.
Boise State is the top contender. They managed to retain HC Specer Danielson, QB Maddux Madsen, their star RB tandem, EDGE Jayden Virgin-Morgan. They are the standard for all G6 programs. They must play my Big Ten, American, and MAC champions in non-conference play, so they will have several chances to prove themselves.
Fresno State and San Diego State had really good years last season, and they both could be even better this time around. Both teams will have stellar defenses and great running games. San Diego State has more experience at QB, but Fresno State has more roster continuity. It’s really hard to pick who is better between the two, but I’ll lean toward Fresno State to be the conference runner-up to Boise State.
With that being said, I think there is a dark horse contender here too. Utah State is entering Year 2 under Bronco Mendenhall, who might be the best coach in the conference. The schedule is tough, but they have some real talent and should be upgraded at QB. They could surprise some people.
Boise State 24 Fresno State 20
Rankings
- Boise State Broncos (33)
- Fresno State Bulldogs (41)
- San Diego State Aztecs (42)
- Utah State Aggies (60)
- Washington State Cougars (81)
- Colorado State Rams (87)
- Texas State Bobcats (90)
- Oregon State Beavers (102)
Sun Belt
This is a clear three team race, and all three teams involved are almost inseperable. They could get a team into the playoffs for the second year in a row, but they need to kill it in non-conference games to make it happen.
James Madison won the conference last year, and they managed to land Billy Napier during this year’s hiring cycle. He has experience in this conference, and he did a really good job last time. Year 1 may have some growing pains. The team is built with the transfer portal as the foundation, and that can be really boom or bust.
JMU’s main challenge to the Sun Belt East throne is Old Dominion, who had a quiet 10 win season last year. I expect them to be good again, but losing QB Colton Joseph to Wisconsin was a big blow. The defense should be really good, and the offense as potential. They have a chance to take advantage of this transition period at JMU.
In the West, one team seems to be much better than the rest. Troy. They won the division last year, and I fully expect them to repeat this year. They’ve added some transfers to the offense to compliment QB Goose Crowder, and the defense is loaded with P4 talent. They seem poised to take the next step, but will be enough to close the gap with JMU and ODU who both beat Troy by a combined 50 points last year.
I think this will be Troy’s year. They have no one standing in their way in the West, and James Madison will come back to Earth temporarily.
Troy 28 James Madison 24
Rankings
- Troy Trojans (83)
- James Madison Dukes (84)
- Old Dominion Monarchs (86)
- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (97)
- Georgia Southern Eagles (98)
- Marshall Thundering Herd (99)
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (108)
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (109)
- Arkansas State Red Wolves (116)
- South Alabama Jaguars (117)
- Appalachian State Mountaineers (121)
- Southern Miss Golden Eagles (122)
- Georgia State Panthers (129)
- Louisiana Monroe Warhawks (130)
Playoffs
So who will stand above the rest and make the playoffs? My guess is the winner of the Pac 12, though Memphis’ games against UNLV and Boise State will make a big impact. The MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt are clearly worse than the other three conferences, but I could see Western Michigan breaking through if they can upset Boise State.
There are 5 main contenders in my eyes. Boise State, UNLV, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Memphis. I could definitely see a team like New Mexico, Hawaii, or Navy making some noise in the top 3 conferences too.
Boise State is my pick to make the playoffs (I know, pretty basic), though their schedule is extremely difficult.
JacobErwin.com 