Can the SEC get back to the championship game? Who will come out of the coaching carousel on top? Is Alabama cooked?
The SEC only has one championship contender in my opinion. Texas. They have the talent, depth, and coaching to get it done. Ole Miss and Georgia have too many holes. LSU is in year 1 with Kiffin with a heavy reliance on transfers. Texas A&M may have been fraudulent last year. Oklahoma’s offense was awful last year… Can John Mateer really make a comeback? If so, Oklahoma could be REALLY good, but if not it will be more of the same from last year. Missouri has some potential, but they must replace all 11 starters on defense. Don’t get me started about Alabama. So many of these teams are close to being real contenders, but none of them have that championship ceiling outside of Texas.
Alabama
Conference Rank: 4
Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2)
Impact Opponents: vs Georgia, vs Texas A&M, at LSU
Alabama was the worst they have been in the trenches in a long time last year. They have completely rebuilt both sides of the line. It seems like they got some decent players in the portal, but if the culture doesn’t change, the personnel doesn’t matter. If Alabama is the same on the line, the whole team will probably be just as good as they were last year. If the line improves, Bama could make some noise in the playoffs.
Even though Ty Simpson may seem like a big loss on paper, I believe Austin Mack and Keelon Russell are ready to take over. Whichever one wins the job should be just as good.
RB is pretty much the same, which is worrying. Daniel Hill and Kevin Riley are decent number twos, but I don’t like either of them as lead backs. Hopefully AK Dear and/or EJ Crowell can emerge as a young star.
WR should be the strongest position on offense. Lotzeir Brooks is probably the no. 1, but if Ryan Williams learned how to catch over the offseason, he could be a Biletnikoff finalist. Rico Scott, Derek Meadows, Noah Rodgers, and new Freshman Cederian Morgan are all good options outside of the top 2 stars. Kaleb Edwards has star potential at TE too.
Defensively, this team should be really good. They were borderline elite by the end of the season last year, and they return the best secondary in the country. Zabien Brown, Bray Hubbard, Keon Sabb, Dijon Lee Jr, and Red Morgan should all be on All-American watchlists, or at least All-SEC. Yhonzae Pierre also returns as one of the best edge rushers in the country. LB is inexperienced, but there is some real talent there. The D-line is where I worry, as they are all either transfers or incoming freshmen. Same goes for the O-line outside of Michael Carroll.
There are pieces of a championship team here, but I don’t trust them to get it right in the trenches. Alabama will be good, maybe even really good, but not elite. The main thing that gives me hope that we can make the playoffs again is the schedule. There are 8 games that are basically gimmes, and then there is a 4 game stretch in the middle of the year that could be tricky. They play at home vs Georgia, at Tennessee, vs Texas A&M, (then a bye) and then at LSU. If Bama can go 2-2 in that stretch, they should make the playoffs.
Arkansas
Conference Rank: 16
Projected Record: 3-9 (1-8)
Impact Opponents vs Georgia, at Texas, vs LSU
First and foremost, I think Arkansas made a bad hire. Ryan Silverfield underachieved at Memphis, so why would he do well at a place like Arkansas, a team that has finished near the bottom of the SEC almost every year for a long time? Arkansas has some decent players. They aren’t a completely awful team, but they’re schedule demands excellence. They play SEVEN of my top 25 teams. At Utah, vs Georgia, at Texas A&M, vs Tennessee, vs Missouri, at Texas, and vs LSU. They also must play at Auburn and Vanderbilt. It takes a really good team to even get 6 wins out of that schedule. At least 6 wins should always be the goal for a team like Arkansas, but a more realistic goal would be 4 or 5 wins, and even that might be pushing it.
Auburn
Conference Rank: 11
Projected Record: 7-5 (4-5)
Impact Opponents: at Georgia, at Ole Miss, at Alabama
A lot of people are really high on this Alex Golesh fella, but I’m skeptical. 7 wins in 2023, 7 wins in 2024, 9 wins in 2025, no conference championship berths, and yet, his roster had more talent than just about everyone he played. To be fair, they only had 1 win in 2022 before he got there, so he did a good job turning them around, but it seemed like he hit a ceiling. Now that he’s at Auburn, he won’t have the talent advantages he’s used to.
One thing I would be excited about is QB Byrum Brown. He is infinitely better than any QB they have had in years. Probably the best since Nick Marshall. He automatically makes this team much better, even if they still had Freeze.
The WR room got heavily nerfed with the losses of Cam Coleman, Eric Singleton Jr, and Malcolm Simmons. None of the guys coming in are as good as these guys. They basically just imported all the dudes from USF, and while I think Byrum Brown will translate to the SEC, I’m not so sure about these guys except for maybe Nimrod. RB should be decent, but not as good as in the Malzahn days with the return of Jeremiah Cobb. I am skeptical about the new-look offensive line as well.
The defense should be really good again. DJ Durkin is back, and even though they lost a lot in the front 7, they got some pretty good transfers and they retained Xavier Atkins, who is one of the best players in the country. As long as Durkin is coaching them, they’ll be good.
Auburn has been an embarrassment to the great state of Alabama for the last 6 years. 2019 was the last time Auburn even sniffed competency. As an Alabama fan, everyday I have to look in the mirror and tell myself that I hate Auburn. I do hate Auburn. With every fiber of my being, but man, it’s hard to not feel sorry for them. This isn’t Mississippi State or Vanderbilt. This is Auburn. They won a championship as recently as 2010 and they competed for another in 2013. We aren’t that far removed from them being good. They have decent NIL. They are in a great location. They DEFINITELY don’t have tough academic standards. A retarded pigeon could get into Auburn. What really makes me angry is that they haven’t been good enough to keep the Iron Bowl nationally relevant. Ohio State this, Michigan that. The Iron Bowl IS the greatest rivalry game on the planet. Auburn is just trying their best to screw it up by sucking every year.
That’s the great dilemma. I hate Auburn and want nothing but the worst for them, but it would be nice if they were good enough to be relevant enough for everyone to realize how good the Iron Bowl is.
Florida
Conference Rank: 10
Projected Record: 7-5 (4-5)
Impact Opponents: vs Ole Miss, at Texas, vs Georgia
Florida actually made a hire that I DO like. Jon Sumrall has been a winner at every stop, and I expect that to continue. They have a really good looking squad in year 1. RB Jadan Baugh and WRs Dallas Wilson, Vernell Brown III, and Eric Singleton Jr should make for a great group of skills. They managed to land OC Buster Faulkner from Georgia Tech and along with him came QB Aaron Philo. If Philo really is the real deal, Florida could have a really good offense. The defense looks solid as well. The front 7 has a lot of talent, but, as a whole, the defense just doesn’t have a whole lot of experience. What’s really tough for Florida is the schedule. Week 3 they play at Auburn as their first challenge of the year, and their inexperienced secondary will be pitted against Byrum Brown. Then, they play Ole Miss, Missouri, Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma as well. 9 wins is the absolute best case scenario in my eyes.
Georgia
Conference Rank: 3
Projected Record: 10-2 (7-2)
Impact Opponents: vs Oklahoma, at Alabama, at Ole Miss
Georgia was inexperienced and bland last year. Now, they’re experienced and bland! The defense will be really good. They had one of their worst years in a while last season, but with more experience they will surely be better. However, they aren’t exactly loaded with 1st rounders like they were in their heyday, so they probably won’t be elite. The main problem is their offense. They have good enough RBs, but they aren’t nearly as good as back in the Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, D’Andre Swift days. Gunner Stockton is probably the best QB Kirby Smart has ever had, and this is the last year he has with him. Last year, the WRs were unspectacular… like they have been ever since Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey left. This year? I have no idea who the number 1 guy will be. They haven’t had a number 1 guy in a while. Until they get some good WRs, Georgia will not win a championship. I’ll also contend that they will not win a championship with Mike Bobo at OC. The dude is too conservative. Maybe he calls it that way because of the personnel, but I’m thinking it’s a mix of the two.
Kentucky
Conference Rank: 15
Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7)
Impact Opponents: vs Alabama, vs LSU, at Oklahoma
Kentucky had a great offseason… but one offseason isn’t enough to suddenly make them competitive. Will Stein was a good hire, and they made some good moves in the portal (especially getting the RB tandem of CJ Baxter and Jovante Barnes). The offense has some good players, and the defense should be decent, but that won’t cut it in the SEC. They are better than Arkansas, that’s for sure, but making a bowl game will be difficult.
LSU
Conference Rank: 5
Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3)
Impact Opponents: at Ole Miss, vs Alabama, vs Texas
LSU is maybe the most intriguing team in the country. How quickly can Lane Kiffin turn them into a contender? They will be heavily leaning on their transfers to perform, and that can be really hit or miss. QB Sam Leavitt is super overrated in my opinion, and they don’t have a star RB like Lane Kiffin normally likes. The O-line and receivers will be good though, so that should help Leavitt and those RBs. The defense should be LSU’s strength with the return of DC Blake Baker and LB Whit Weeks. They have a great staff, and great talent everywhere, but can it all mesh, and is it good enough to get through a tough schedule with only 2 losses? Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee will be tough outs, and LSU must have a winning record in those games to have any sort of shot. They are capable, but with all the turnover, I don’t expect them to quite have the consistency to pull it off.
Mississippi State
Conference Rank: 12
Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6)
Impact Opponents: vs Alabama, at Texas, at Ole Miss
MSST was a pleasant surprise last year. They got 5 wins, and they had 3 one possession games including 2 that were in OT (against Tennessee and Texas). I expect them to pick up where they left off and improve. Their young QB Kamario Taylor is impressive. If he takes a step forward, MSST will be really dangerous. Bringing back Zach Arnett to be the DC again was a really good move. Defense was definitely the weakness, and he should be able to build a solid unit. Their schedule is very difficult again, but they should still be able to make a bowl game.
Missouri
Conference Rank: 8
Projected Record: 8-4 (5-4)
Impact Opponents: at Ole Miss, vs Texas, at Georgia
Missouri has been bumping their head against the contender ceiling for a few years now. They haven’t gotten that signature win yet. They beat all the mediocre, and even some of the good, but they never beat any of the top teams. I expect them to be better this year. The offense looks extremely promising. They added Austin Simmons at QB. He doesn’t have the experience of Pribula, but I think he has a higher ceiling. They return the best RB in the country Ahmad Hardy, and he will be running behind a very good offensive line. The defense lost all 11 starters in the offseason. I trust DC Corey Batoon, and they got some good transfers, but they’ll probably regress as a whole. Missouri will be really good, but they will need Austin Simmons to emerge as a star and they will need the defense to start gelling quickly if they want to contend for the playoffs.
Oklahoma
Conference Rank: 6
Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3)
Impact Opponents: at Georgia, vs Texas, vs Ole Miss
Oklahoma had a fantastic defense last year, but the offense was really bad. John Mateer was really good in the first few weeks, but after hurting his hand, he was never the same. The defense should be really good again, and the offense is once again the question mark. If Mateer gets back to what he was before he was injured, Oklahoma’s offense should be pretty good. What would make the offense really good, is if they can get a running game going. Their run game was awful last year. I don’t think that was the RB’s fault. Most of their shortcomings can be pinned on the O-line, which is much more experienced this year. If the running game gets good, this offense could be good enough to get this team to the playoffs. That’s a lot of ifs. Oklahoma could be really good. They could be exactly what they were last year. I’m thinking they’ll be something in the middle.
Ole Miss
Conference Rank: 2
Projected Record: 10-3 (7-2)
Impact Opponents: vs LSU, at Texas, vs Georgia
Ole Miss was this close to a championship last year, and that was with Pete Golding coaching all through the playoffs. I expect Ole Miss to be just as good this year. Trinidad Chambliss is the best QB in the country and Kewan Lacy is one of the best RBs. They have an experienced o-line and a dynamic receiver room. The defense should be stellar as well at all three levels. The schedule is really tough. Week 3 they play LSU at home in what will surely be a super dramatic matchup. They play on the road against Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma, and they get home games against Georgia and Missouri. Ole Miss is on the cusp of national championship contention again, but we’ll see if Pete Golding can navigate a whole season with all the pressure.
South Carolina
Conference Rank: 13
Projected Record: 5-7 (2-7)
Impact Opponents: at Alabama, at Oklahoma, vs Georgia
South Carolina has 3 stars, and they need them to perform out of their minds. LaNorris Sellers, Nyck Harbor, and Dylan Stewart. The o-line was not good last year, and I don’t expect to be any good this year either. They are really banking on Kendal Briles to be the answer at OC. Honestly, as long as it isn’t Mike Shula, they should be improved on that side of the ball. The defense was disappointing last year. It seems they have a little bit more talent there though, and they should be better than they were last season. Shane Beamer needs to prove 2024 wasn’t a fluke, and they have some pieces to win some games and stay competitive, but the schedule will make it tough. Games against Mississippi State, Florida, Tennessee, and Clemson will be crucial if they want to make a bowl game.
Tennessee
Conference Rank: 9
Projected Record: 7-5 (4-5)
Impact Opponents: vs Texas, vs Alabama, vs LSU
It is becoming clearer and clearer that Josh Heupel isn’t that great of a coach. Heupel isn’t exactly a QB whisperer. Once he gets his hands on a good QB, the system works. When the QB is bad, the offense is bad. They are breaking George MacIntyre to lead the offense this year. He’s young and not Joe Milton, so we’ll see what happens. They have a really good RB with DeSean Bishop, but the WRs are lacking with the loss of Chris Brazzell II. They hired Jim Knowles to take over as DC after he laid an egg at Penn State last year. I’m not convinced the defense will be top 5 in the conference or anything like that, but they should be alright.
Tennessee has acted like they’re a top tier SEC program ever since Hendon Hooker led them to 11 wins in 2022. That was 4 years ago. What have you done for me lately? They’ve been pretty good, but never anywhere near what they were. This is where their hubris will catch up to them. Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU… they don’t stack up with any of those teams. Auburn, at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt… heck, even at Georgia Tech. They could lose any of those if they aren’t careful. You really think Josh Heupel can get you to the playoffs? Tennessee needs George MacIntyre to come out of nowhere and be an all-conference competitor for that to happen. 9 wins is possible with injury luck… and that’s me being generous. 7 or 8 wins seems right to me. Say hello to mediocrity Tennessee. You’re gonna have to get used to it because Florida, Auburn, and even Mississippi State are coming close to passing you up and leaving you in the dirt, wondering what happened to your precious 2022 season when you were sooo good. Ooo, we’ve beaten Alabama 2 of the last 4 years… Well, Alabama has beaten you 17 of the last 19 years and won 6 championships in that span with 3 Heisman winners. Even a poverty program like Auburn has won a championship in that span. If they can do it, anyone can… except Tennessee I guess.
Texas
Conference Rank: 1
Projected Record: 11-2 (7-2)
Impact Opponents: vs Ohio State, vs Ole Miss, at LSU
Texas is the favorite to win the conference. Arch Manning was finally playing comfortably at the end of the season, and was actually really good. He has a really nice set of weapons to throw to too. Cam Coleman transferred in from Auburn, and they also have Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V coming back. They brought in 5 star WR Jermaine Bishop Jr as well who could make an impact. The o-line needs to be better though. That will be the difference in them being really good and elite. The defense should be one of the nation’s best with the hire of Will Muschamp at DC. The front 7 is lethal with Colin Simmons being one of the nation’s best players and the addition of transfer LB Rasheem Biles from Pitt. Texas has one of the hardest schedules in the country, but that shouldn’t matter too much because of how good they are. They play 7 of my top 25 teams including 2 of my top 6. They’re bound to lose a game or two, but I would be shocked if they missed the playoffs.
Texas A&M
Conference Rank: 7
Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3)
Impact Opponents: at LSU, at Alabama, vs Texas
The main difference between this year and last is the schedule. Last year, they had one of the league’s easiest schedules, and they lost to the only really quality team they faced (in league play, the Notre Dame win was good). This year, they must play LSU, Missouri, Alabama, and Oklahoma on the road while they get Tennessee and Texas at home. They went 11-1 in the regular season last year, but logic would leave me to believe that they will have at least 1 or 2 more losses this year. A&M is still really good, don’t get me wrong, but they have some concerns.
- Marcel Reed isn’t elite and never will be
- They lost Collin Klein
- They are starting Wilkin Formby at RT. They tells me how desperate they are for lineman
- They lost Cashius Howell and there is no obvious successor
- The schedule as I mentioned before
- KC Concepcion is being replaced by Isaiah Horton. He’s good, but he isn’t a star
- It’s A&M. If you get your hopes up, they will almost always disappoint you
That’s a pretty long list of concerns. These concerns don’t make me think they will be bad by any means, but it give me reason to doubt they will make the playoffs again. Hey, they could still make it happen. Maybe Mike Elko really is a great coach. We’ll see about that.
Vanderbilt
Conference Rank: 14
Projected Record: 4-8 (1-8)
Impact Opponents: at Georgia, vs Ole Miss, vs Alabama
Clark Lea has led Vanderbilt to their best stretch of football in history. Can that continue without Diego Pavia? I’m not sure. Vandy has the roster to make a bowl game again. The defense should be solid, and the offense has some really good skill players. The o-line is very inexperienced though. Vandy will be relying on a freshman QB as well, albeit, one of the top recruits in the country. A true freshman and a shaky o-line are never a good combo. Most of Vandy’s success will rely on if those two spots can improve quickly. The schedule is pretty hard, but they get to play both Arkansas and Kentucky, so they should get at least one win out of that. Mississippi State and Auburn are winnable games, but that would require a great QB performance, and I’m not sure if they can get that. 6 wins is probably the ceiling, but a more realistic expectation is 4 or 5 wins.
SEC Championship Preview
I have already said Texas is my favorite, so who will be the runner up? The main contenders in my eyes are Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama. I think Ole Miss is definitely the best team out of the three, but Georgia and Alabama both have really easy schedules. If receivers emerge for Georgia, they could be super dangerous. If Alabama’s o-line reaches competency, they could be really dangerous. It seems Ole Miss already has everything figured out though, so they’ll be my pick to be the runner-up to Texas.
Texas 31 Ole Miss 28
Ranking
- Texas Longhorns (2)
- Ole Miss Rebels (6)
- Georgia Bulldogs (9)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (11)
- LSU Tigers 9-3 (12)
- Oklahoma Sooners 9-3 (13)
- Texas A&M Aggies 9-3 (14)
- Missouri Tigers 8-4 (17)
- Tennessee Volunteers (24)
- Florida Gators (27)
- Auburn Tigers (30)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs (37)
- South Carolina Gamecocks (40)
- Vanderbilt Commodores (43)
- Kentucky Wildcats (51)
- Arkansas Razorbacks (54)
*FBS Rank in ( )
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